Piston Slap: Bad Vibes From The "Value" Timeline

Sajeev Mehta
by Sajeev Mehta

James writes:

Sajeev,

My question is – when should I sell my current car? Our family runs a 2004 Pontiac Vibe with 109k miles. It is our only car and it seems to run better since it broke the 100k mark. It has been exceptionally reliable, cheap to own, and gets excellent mileage – I get 29mpg average! We like being a one car family and intent to keep it that way unless we suddenly become independently wealthy.

I gave up my ’06 civic coupe for the Vibe in a purely pragmatic move to accommodate our newborn child and high energy dog in the back. I didn’t expect to like it, but it has turned out to be a really good car and I seem to like it incrementally a little more each day. Although we’ve grown to really like the car (to our surprise), it is basically an appliance to us. We use it to commute, get groceries and the occasional road trip.

I read in the Fiesta ST Review that engines are often engineered to last 150k miles, and I’m often pondering when is the typical right moment, miles-wise to let go of the Vibe and replace it with some other reliable used car.

The way I see it, there are the first three years or so of car ownership where the cash expended in depreciation is way higher than the utility returned. Then there is a sweet spot of value which lasts about 10 years where the car is actually giving back the most for the money spent. After that, there is a mystery period I have yet to experience where, while the car is cheap as dirt to run, a great deal of time is spent with it out of service getting growing maintenance repairs.

Is this an accurate evaluation of the car value timeline? And if so, can you give some insight into when (in miles) is a good time to let go of the car in a one-vehicle house hold.

Sajeev answers:

Your general timeline (second to last paragraph) is fair, can’t say the same for the 150k miles reference: there is far too much variance in engine design, driving conditions and ownership maintenance schedules to draw that line in the sand. So to speak.

A car’s “value timeline” is a good resource for accountants planning a company/government vehicle depreciation schedule. For everyone else, I think it’s a crock. A pot-hole beaten suspension may cost $3000 to restore in 10-15 years, but will the owner even notice enough to care? Will one vehicle need the same repairs as another? An extreme example is comparing an AMG Benz driven on brutal NYC roads versus a Honda Accord in a far tamer rural/suburban setting. One size fits all is simply a notion that cannot exist.

Another issue: some body/trim levels need less repair than others. Compare your heavier Vibe to the light Corolla from whence it came. Or take my 2011 Ranger regular cab to any other truck: with the same brakes (4-whl discs) and suspension as an Explorer from the Clinton Era but with about 800lbs less weight on its shoulders, my need for brake/tire/suspension reconditioning shall be far less frequent. In two years and almost 20,000 miles, my truck’s tires and brakes look new: they are completely overbuilt for the tiny truck in which they reside. I don’t expect my truck to need repairs like an Explorer, or even a super cab Ranger with a big V6, longer wheelbase and rear drum brakes.

But will the anomaly of an Overbuilt Economy Variant of a common platform be represented on someone’s spreadsheet? Not likely.

Back to the point: there is no “one size fits all” timeline. The schedule is different for everyone, and everything they may choose to drive. And where they drive it. And, most importantly, one’s irrational/unexpected need to want something new for reasons yet to be explained. You ain’t never gonna find that on a timeline, but it happens all the time: marinate on that.

Send your queries to sajeev@thetruthaboutcars.com. Spare no details and ask for a speedy resolution if you’re in a hurry…but be realistic, and use your make/model specific forums instead of TTAC for more timely advice.

Sajeev Mehta
Sajeev Mehta

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  • Dolorean Dolorean on Sep 26, 2013

    "A pot-hole beaten suspension may cost $3000 to restore in 10-15 years, but will the owner even notice enough to care?" As a bouncy, jouncy suspension is a detriment to yourself and others, one would hope that a responsible car owner who plans on going to the moon and back in it, will fork over the cash for such a significant safety issue.

    • See 2 previous
    • Ajla Ajla on Sep 26, 2013

      @golden2husky "More than half the cars in the boneyard are on original struts. And the funny thing is how many people think they are 'just fine'." In some cases they might be correct. When I replaced all four of the struts on my 20yo Bonneville, two of them were still fine and cleaned up you wouldn't be able to tell the difference from new. The other two were completely gone. Rubber isolators were good on three, no cracking or anything. Both front strut bearings and ball joints were done. End links were still good.

  • Turf3 Turf3 on Sep 27, 2013

    Hey, James: Now that you have an inexpensive paid for car, I recommend you do what my wife and I did. Run it till the wheels fall off, and do all the work you can yourself. We kept a Mazda 626 and a Toyota Camry for 175,000 mi/17 years and 150,000 mi/15 years respectively during our late 20s/early 40s. The money we saved on car payments during that time formed the basis of our (now quite nicely accumulated) savings. Furthermore, we are now able to follow a rule: Buy brand new cars or one-two years old, only. Buy quality cars. Pay cash for them; NEVER AGAIN TAKE A CAR LOAN And run 'em till the wheels fall off. Do the math. You will see that the biggest ripoff in America is the ongoing car loan (those people who buy a new car, with loan, just as soon as they get the one before it paid off) - the second biggest ripoff is the car lease. Pay cash, don't ever buy a car for which you can't write a check, and drive them till they are truly worn out.

  • Oberkanone My grid hurts!Good luck with installing charger locations at leased locations with aging infrastructure. Perhaps USPS would have better start modernizing it's Post offices to meet future needs. Of course, USPS has no money for anything.
  • Dukeisduke If it's going to be a turbo 4-cylinder like the new Tacoma, I'll pass.BTW, I see lots of Tacomas (mine is a 2013), but I haven't seen any 4th-gen trucks yet.
  • Oberkanone Expect 4Runner to combine best aspects of new Land Cruiser and new Tacoma and this is what I expect from 2025 4Runner.Toyota is REALLY on it's best game recently. Tacoma and Land Cruiser are examples of this.
  • ArialATOMV8 All I hope is that the 4Runner stays rugged and reliable.
  • Arthur Dailey Good. Whatever upsets the Chinese government is fine with me. And yes they are probably monitoring this thread/site.
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