Cain's Segments: Muscle Cars Weak, Challenger Dodges The Trend

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

That sound you’ve been hearing for nearly two decades is the weeping and gnashing of teeth roused by the Chevrolet Beretta’s demise. Oh, Ford Probe, we hardly knew ye. Whither the Dodge Daytona? Let’s look at the continuing decline of an empire, formerly ruled by the American Muscle Car.

At Chevrolet, SS is not the oft-used badge that AMG is at Mercedes-Benz. Ford’s ST and SVT branding aren’t used to form an overwhelming BMW M-like presence. You can buy big V8-engined Chryslers, but many of Chrysler’s higher-volume products – 200, Avenger, Dart, Journey, Wrangler – go without sporting iterations. Detroit’s three automakers don’t even sell coupe versions of their mainstream sedans these days.


There is plenty of sporting heritage present in GM, Ford, and Chrysler showrooms, of course. Iconic nameplates sell at a level normally associated with moderately successful midsize cars. And even in 2013, a year in which muscle car sales have fallen, the Chevrolet Camaro and Ford Mustang are America’s 29th and 30th-best-selling passenger cars, ahead of the Ford Taurus, Subaru Impreza, and Buick LaCrosse.

Although we’re also showing results for two higher-end cars, two veritable sports cars, a more accurate reflection of the muscle car marketplace is made more apparent when you leave out the Corvette and Viper. Sales of America’s muscle car trio are down 4.6% through five months. May sales of the Camaro, Challenger, and Mustang fell 8.3% in the United States.

Those declines haven’t occurred because of the lowest-volume member of the group. Dodge Challenger volume is up 28% this year, rising 15% in May. Its market share in the three-car category grew to 24.9% in May, up from 19.8% a year ago.

That market share was obviously stolen from the Camaro and Mustang, whether there are any prospective Challenger buyers who would have actually chosen the Chevrolet or Ford. It’s bit of a Sox or Cubs; Manchester United or Manchester City world.

Of the 22,263 American muscle cars sold in May, 35.6% were Camaros, down from 37.2% in May 2012. The Mustang’s share slid from 43% in May 2012 to 39.5% in May 2013. Year-to-date, the Camaro and Mustang have lost nearly four and three percentage points worth of market share, respectively.

In a market which enjoyed an 8% year-over-year increase in May, the fact that the Camaro and Mustang could be struggling to match last year’s pace shouldn’t come as a surprise. Whether you’re selling a German roadster, a driftable Japanese sports car, or an outrageously powerful Detroit pony car, the number of customers is likely to shrink as the launch date becomes a distant memory.

Dodge Challenger sales figures must then be the exception that proves the rule.

AutoMay 2013May 2012May % Change5 mos. 20135 mos. 2012YTD % ChangeChevrolet Camaro79299023– 12.1%35,07640,574– 13.6%Chevrolet Corvette9051219– 25.8%48205547– 13.1%Dodge Challenger55374816+ 15.0%24,88119,442+ 28.0%Ford Mustang879710,427– 15.6%33,86838,361– 11.7%SRT Viper65——12920+ 545%—— —————Total23,233 25,485 – 8.8% 98,774 103,944 – 5.0%

Independent analyst Timothy Cain is the founder and editor of GoodCarBadCar.net. His look at the important segments will be a permanent fixture at TTAC, along with a look at the market up North.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Chicagoland Chicagoland on Jun 10, 2013

    Calling "any two door car" a "muscle car" is flat out, 100% w-r-o-n-g! No #@&^*(! way was the Chevy Beretta ever a muscle car!!! Young Auto Writers on the WWW need car history lessons. They've been surrounded by 'truck based' vehicles their whole 20 some years, when they see a pic of a Beretta or Probe from before they were born, they assume it "must have been fast and sporty". Like assuming the 1930's Great Depression was 'good times' from the looks of buildings and cars then. Todays little kids will call all V8 trucks 'performance cars' in 20-30 years. LOL

    • CJinSD CJinSD on Jun 11, 2013

      Muscle car seems to have a pretty elastic definition. When I first learned the term, it meant an intermediate two door powered by a big block from a full sized car. Mustangs, Camaros, Firebirds, Challengers, Barracudas, and Javelins were pony cars. With the exception of the Challenger and third generation Barracuda, they were all based on compact sedans. They were not muscle cars. Nor were Hemi-Darts, for that matter. Applying strict definitions from the '60s to car classifications would mean that the Mustang isn't a pony car anymore. By the same token, the only sports cars Porsche has built in any meaningful numbers have been the 356 Speedster(all other 356s were GTs), the 550, the 904, the 914, the Boxster, the Carrera GT, and the Cayman. All the other real Porsches were 2+2s, and GTs as a result. Roadsters can't have roll down windows and probably shouldn't have external door handles. Hardtops can't have B-pillars. Coupes can't have more than two doors and must be based on a sedan(I like this one).

  • HiFlite999 HiFlite999 on Jun 11, 2013

    The present-day situation with muscle cars reminds me of the time just before the collapse of the original ones. IIRC, polled owners of the Stangs, Camaros, Cudas of the day mostly said that they loved their cars. Hence their makers expected sales to continue well. However, they had failed to ask a critical question: WILL YOU BUY ANOTHER? To that, the answer was basically NO. Camry owners replace their Camrys with Camrys. F-150 owners replace their F-150s with F-150s. Muscle Car owners usually replace their hot rods with something else. The whole performance car segment will suffer as the older, richer one-time owners move on, to be replaced with a younger, poorer generation of car buyers who are much more interested in low costs of ownership than quarter-mile times.

    • Nrd515 Nrd515 on Jun 13, 2013

      This is sadly true, to a point. Several of my friends with Challengers and Mustangs will replace them with a 4 door vehicle next time, but a lot of them won't be, their kids are gone, and they have another vehicle for grandkids, etc. It's about 50/50 Charger or 300 if they are going the 4 door route, unless the Chevy SS grabs them. For me, it's going to probably be either another Challenger, if they don't mess it up, or, if GM makes the next one look ok, a Camaro. The present one is just too plain ugly to think about.

  • Ajla Those letters look like they are from AutoZone.
  • Analoggrotto Kia EV9 was voted the best vehicle in the world and this is the best TOYOTA can do? Nice try, next.
  • 3-On-The-Tree 4cyl as well.
  • Luke42 I want more information about Ford’s Project T3.The Silverado EV needs some competition beyond just the Rivian truck. The Cybertruck has missed the mark.The Cybertruck is special in that it’s the first time Tesla has introduced an uncompetitive EV. I hope the company learns from their mistakes. While Tesla is learning what they did wrong, I’ll be shopping to replace my GMC Sierra Hybrid with a Chevy, a Ford, or a Rivian — all while happily driving my Model Y.
  • 3-On-The-Tree I wished they wouldn’t go to the twin turbo V6. That’s why I bought a 2021 Tundra V8.
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