Japan In February 2013: Down 8 Percent

On a serious note, those numbers point to a dramatic shift ocurring in Japan. If I have learned anything from the examination of US auto sales data over the years, it is that you rarely see dramatic shifts in sales gains or losses. Gradual trends take place rather than huge gains or losses. Japan is a different market than the US, but these numbers show major shifts top to bottom. The question is, what is driving the changes? Economic pressures, currency fluctuations (unlikely), or something else?

@EquipmentJunkie There is nothing dramatic, at least not in these numbers. By the end of 2012, the Japanese market was up 27.5 percent after government subsidies ended in September. www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/01/japan-in-december-2012-a-much-better-year-than-some-predicted/ This had a serious pull forward-effect into the first half of 2012, with which we compare now. Japanese industry expected a 25 percent drop after subsidies ended, it didn't happen. If you want serious changes, you need to look to Europe. At Honda, you better look for something else than a turd in the pocket. Look at the bottom list. Honda's Japanese sales shifted massively from regular cars to minivehicles.

@Bertel Schmitt I see. So, there is another major factor driving the changes other than "organic" market forces. I did look at the bottom list but it also seemed to have lots of motion outside of Honda, too. I didn't make my point very well. I was trying to explain that there is a lot of movement within brands and vehicle classes. Yes, Europe today is like the US in '09.

@Bertel Schmitt Still, overall, Honda is down well more than the market, and the shift to Kei sales cannot be good for profitability. Is the breakdown of the imports available? Is some of the Toyota (also down more than the market) or Honda moving more production outside Japan?

@th009 The import breakdown will be available next week. January saw no significant change. VW still on top and growing. Honda imports nothing. Toyota's and Nissan's imports actually were down in Jan. I'd say most of the "Japanese" imports were Nissan and Mitsubishis. The "Other" number are foreign imports. "Japanese" imports are the difference between "Imports" and "Other."

@EquipmentJunkie Japan is facing the same demographic headwinds as Europe, with a rapidly aging population and falling birthrate. Unlike North America, they don't seem to be offsetting the declining birthrate with immigration. Their economy has been bouncing along the bottom for over 20 years, and their debt is by far the worst of any industrial country. Their economy continues to hollow out thanks to high production costs. Because of this, I would expect a slow decline in the size of the JDM over the next several years.

@PenguinBoy How about the next several decades?

@PenguinBoy ''North America, they don’t seem to be offsetting the declining birthrate with immigration.'' Boy that's a viscous cycle, keep America stocked full with people so its an employers market. Cheap wages and fewer benefits for everyone.... woohoo!

@raph "Cheap wages and fewer benefits for everyone…. woohoo!" And higher taxes of every kind for the schools, health care, prisons, police and case workers. Uncontrolled immigration is just piling-on more misery.

@PenguinBoy Overlay the age distribution of Japan with that of Germany, and you will be in for a big surprise. The problem is MUCH bigger in most parts of Europe than in Japan.

@Bertel Schmitt Except that Germany hoovers Turks and Russians by millions, and Japan does not. Japan is a dead country walking, and Germany is gonna be all right if they jettison PIIGS.

@raph Immigration does not need to be uncontrolled. Countries such as Canada, Australia and New Zealand seem to be able to manage it well.