By on March 2, 2013

 

This was tough month for the panel of analysts polled by Bloomberg: Analysts who previously monopolized the top ranks of the list blew this one. February was won by three bankers: Peter Nesvold in first, followed by Brian Johnson, and Patrick Archambault.

Top Ranked Analysts, February 2013
Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 5.0% 9.4% 5.9% 15.3 0.52% 4.03% 4.54%
2 Brian Johnson (Barclays) 4.0% 9.2% 3.2% 15.3 0.52% 4.21% 4.73%
3 Patrick Archambault (Goldman) 6.3% 7.6% 2.3% 15.3 0.52% 4.41% 4.93%
4 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) 4.2% 7.5% 4.1% 15.3 0.52% 4.81% 5.33%
5 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 5.0% 6.4% 4.3% 15.3 0.52% 5.28% 5.80%
6 Joseph Spak (RBC) 5.3% 9.7% 0.2% 15.3 0.52% 6.16% 6.67%
7 John Sousanis (Wards) 6.0% 11.0% 8.0% 15.4 0.13% 6.73% 6.86%
8 Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) 2.7% 12.0% 4.9% 15.4 0.13% 7.93% 8.06%
9 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 5.1% 7.2% -1.1% 15.2 1.17% 9.41% 10.58%
10 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 5.6% 12.0% 9.1% 15.7 2.08% 9.23% 11.31%
11 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 4.6% 16.0% 7.6% 15.5 0.78% 12.73% 13.51%
12 George Magliano (IHS) NA NA NA 15.3 0.52% 300.00% 300.52%
13 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA 15.3 0.52% 300.00% 300.52%
14 Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan) NA NA NA 15.2 1.17% 300.00% 301.17%
15 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA NA 15.2 1.17% 300.00% 301.17%
Average 4.9% 9.8% 4.4% 15.3 0.52% 3.03% 3.54%
Actual 7.2% 9.3% 4.1% 15.4

The specialists of  TrueCar and Edmunds find themselves at the bottom of the list of bona-fide guessers. What were you thinking, Jesse, a 15.7 SAAR? Jessica, Jessica: Too low for GM, way too high for Ford and Chrysler. Better luck next time.

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