Did you do what we told you and collect bets on China’s auto market in January? Even if you usually disagree with TTAC, even if you only read TTAC ten times a day to see what scandalous biased stuff we write, this time, you should have followed our advice. China’s new cars sales in January were up 46.38 percent as compared to January 2012, says China’s manufacturers association CAAM. How did we see that coming?
Experience. With that under the belt, it is fairly easy to predict big sales swings. You too can be a winning analyst, just by reading TTAC.
This picture, also by Reuters, is much more interesting. It shows that a Chinese car market that had rocketed up in the second half of the last decade is essentially flat at a high level. Not the bursting bubble that had been prognosticated by the Glenn Becks and Gordon Changs of this world. Also no continuation of the steep trajectory. China is driving sideways.
Since 2010, new auto sales in China were stuck below the 20 million barrier. At 19,306,400 units sold in 2012, this level is still intact. The CAAM hopes to pierce it this year, but not by much.
Now, do you want to make some money? Here is another great bet: Show your friends the huge Chinese gains in January. Then, take the contrarian position and bet that percentage-wise, sales in February will be WAY down. Do it, and send us 10 percent of your winnings. You cannot go wrong. Trust us. Again.