TrueCar, Auto Execs Expect Very Strong November

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

Driven by a rebounding economy and an after-Sandy pop, auto sales in November will be be “highest since February 2008,” expects Jesse Toprak, senior analyst at TrueCar.com. Sales chiefs at major automakers agree.

Unit Sales Forecast November 2012ManufacturerNov’12MoMYoYNissan86,5278.6%1.6%Hyundai/Kia97,4305.1%12.5%Honda111,1083.9%32.4%Toyota161,1843.8%16.8%Volkswagen47,2642.7%24.0%Industry1,120,0882.6%12.7%Ford168,9630.6%1.5%GM196,5750.4%9.0%Chrysler126,6150.3%18.1%Source: TrueCar

TrueCar projects November sales of new light vehicles to be 1,120,088 units, up 12.7 percent from November 2011 and up 2.6 percent from October 2012, for a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 15.2 million.

Most of the growth comes from Asian and European transplants. Nissan is projected for an 8.6 percent month-on-month pop, mainly driven by record incentives. TrueCar says that on average, Nissan put $4,273 on the hood of every car sold in November. Much maligned Honda is projected to increase its sales by a third over November 2011.

Market Share Forecast November 2012ManufacturerNov’12Oct’12Nov’11Nissan7.7%7.3%8.6%Toyota14.4%14.2%13.9%Hyundai/Kia8.7%8.5%8.7%Honda9.9%9.8%8.4%Volkswagen4.2%4.2%3.8%Chrysler11.3%11.6%10.8%Ford15.1%15.4%16.7%GM17.5%17.9%18.2%Source: TrueCar

The strength of the foreigners is expected to translate into lost market share in Detroit. Ford and GM are seen to lose share both month-on-month and year-on-year. Chrysler is seen to improve its share by half a point over November 2011, but to shed three tenths compared to October 2012.

Carmaker executives agree with the projections. Toyota’s U.S. Chief Jim Lentz expects a SAAR anywhere between 14.8 and 15.2 million. John Mendel, EVP of American Honda, expects a November SAAR “right around 15 million,” Reuters reports.

Toyota believes that 400,000 units were destroyed by Sandy, 100,000 of those being new cars, Lentz told Reuters.

Jim Farley, Ford’s global sales and marketing chief, is banking on people getting tired of their thirsty old cars, and want to trade them for fuel efficient new ones. “The average car is 11 years old,” Farley told the Wall Street Journal. “The fleet has never been older.”

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • DeadWeight DeadWeight on Nov 28, 2012

    Stack that metal boys, and stack it deep, and push it out on a subprime credit sub-200 dolla' $0 down leases on the cheap. Remain Optima, but bee Civic, Focus hard, feel that Soul & Spark a Fiesta, steal a Jolt &...Cruz... (Keep that line movin', movin', movin' rawhide....giddyup).

  • BigMeats BigMeats on Nov 28, 2012

    "Sales chiefs at major automakers agree." Now *there's* an argument from authority.

  • MaintenanceCosts It's not a Benz or a Jag / it's a 5-0 with a rag /And I don't wanna brag / but I could never be stag
  • 3-On-The-Tree Son has a 2016 Mustang GT 5.0 and I have a 2009 C6 Corvette LS3 6spd. And on paper they are pretty close.
  • 3-On-The-Tree Same as the Land Cruiser, emissions. I have a 1985 FJ60 Land Cruiser and it’s a beast off-roading.
  • CanadaCraig I would like for this anniversary special to be a bare-bones Plain-Jane model offered in Dynasty Green and Vintage Burgundy.
  • ToolGuy Ford is good at drifting all right... 😉
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