By on October 3, 2012
Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 Jessica Caldwell ( 1.9% 0.7% 8.4% 14.4 3.6% 4.5% 8.1%
2 Jesse Toprak ( 2.5% 1.3% 8.1% 14.6 2.3% 6.0% 8.3%
3 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 3.7% 2.2% 6.1% 14.5 2.9% 10.1% 13.0%
4 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 1.0% 1.6% 4.4% 14.4 3.6% 9.5% 13.1%
5 John Sousanis (Ward’s) 4.6% 4.3% 8.1% 14.6 2.3% 11.1% 13.4%
6 Joseph Spak (RBC) 4.0% 4.9% 8.0% 14.5 2.9% 11.2% 14.1%
7 Patrick Archambault (Goldman) 2.2% 4.2% 4.8% 14.6 2.3% 11.9% 14.2%
8 Brian Johnson (Barclays) -1.5% -1.4% 5.5% 14.3 4.3% 10.2% 14.5%
9 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley) 4.0% 1.7% 5.6% 14.3 4.3% 10.4% 14.7%
10 Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) 3.3% 2.0% 4.4% 14.4 3.6% 11.2% 14.8%
11 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 5.0% 4.0% 6.0% 14.5 2.9% 13.3% 16.2%
12 Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA NA NA 15.0 0.4% 300.0% 300.4%
13 George Magliano (IHS) NA NA NA 14.5 2.9% 300.0% 302.9%
14 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA NA 14.5 2.9% 300.0% 302.9%
15 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA 14.5 2.9% 300.0% 302.9%
16 Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan) NA NA NA 14.4 3.6% 300.0% 303.6%
Average 2.8% 2.3% 6.3% 14.50
Actual 1.5% -0.2% 11.5% 14.94

The public may have been surprised by the very strong showing of the market and the not so strong showing of GM and Ford when the September sales came in yesterday. Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds and Jesse Toprak of TrueCar weren’t surprised at all. They called the market with high precision. Separated by only 0.2 points, Caldwell made first, Toprak second, followed far behind by Peter Nesvold of Jefferies.Overall, the 16 analysts polled by Bloomberg were a little bit too optimistic when it came to GM and Ford, they shortsold Chrysler and undershot the very strong SAAR of 14.94 million (as per Autodata] . The few analysts who still only deliver a SAAR only stand no chance. Even coming as close to the actual SAAR as Adam Jones of Morgan Stanley does not make you a winner if there are no predictions for the D3.

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2 Comments on “Grade The Analysts: Caldwell Beats Toprak By A Hair...”

  • avatar

    Pretty amazing 1) how many times she won this little contest and 2) how typical it is that the bankers are out of touch with reality.

    I strongly suggest that from now on every time Jessica wins we should be graced with an updated photo of her in the article. Cute as much as smart, hope the banks hire her for a carload of money.

    • 0 avatar

      Bankers might be more in touch with automotive sales reality if they went back to financing cars. That’s not possible with their new gold standard credit check requirements. We’re back to the old saw, you can’t get a bank loan unless you can prove to the bank that you don’t need one.

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