By on September 5, 2012

August sales numbers caught analysts by surprise. They had expected a strong August, but they did not aim high enough. All but Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.

Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 6.4% 9.8% 12.0% 14.5 0.2% 8.8% 9.0%
2 John Sousanis (Ward’s) 1.6% 11.0% 16.0% 14.4 0.9% 12.4% 13.3%
3 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley) 3.4% 9.6% 9.6% 14.4 0.9% 14.4% 15.3%
4 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 3.9% 9.5% 9.6% 14.2 2.3% 14.0% 16.3%
5 Brian Johnson (Barclays) 5.5% 7.0% 8.2% 14.2 2.3% 16.3% 18.6%
6 Joseph Spak (RBC) 2.4% 8.0% 9.0% 14.3 1.6% 17.6% 19.2%
7 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 0.7% 9.7% 8.9% 14.3 1.6% 17.7% 19.3%
8 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 3.9% 8.7% 6.1% 14.3 1.6% 18.3% 19.9%
9 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 1.0% 3.4% 16.0% 14.0 3.6% 20.6% 24.2%
10 Patrick Archambault (Goldman) 1.2% 7.8% 4.0% 13.9 4.3% 24.0% 28.3%
11 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA NA 14.5 0.2% 300.0% 300.2%
12 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA 14.3 1.6% 300.0% 301.6%
13 Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA NA NA 14.2 2.3% 300.0% 302.3%
14 George Magliano (IHS) NA NA NA 14.1 3.0% 300.0% 303.0%
15 Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan) NA NA NA 14.0 3.6% 300.0% 303.6%
Average 3.0% 8.5% 9.9% 14.2
Actual 10.0% 13.0% 14.0% 14.53

Caldwell called the unexpectedly high SAR of 14.5 million exactly (save for a rounding error). She also came pretty close to the actual showing of the D3. Jessica takes a well earned top spot in the August round of Grade the Analysts.

Caldwell shares the podium with industry prognosticators of Wards and Kelly, with TrueCar in place four. The bankers are far behind.

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