By on August 2, 2012

Yesterday, we did one of our regular checks on the World’s Largest Automakers. Today, finally some good news for the GM camp: TTAC is up-revising its year-end projection for GM by some 300,000 units. Here is why:

Half-Year Production and Full Year Forecast
6M ’12 6M ’11 YoY Proj ’12
Toyota 5,247,777 3,375,692 55.5% 10,496,000
GM 4,816,000 4,727,000 1.9% 9,632,000
Volkswagen 4,450,000 4,090,000 8.8% 8,900,000
6 month data based on company quarterly reports
Toyota, GM: Production. VW: Deliveries. Forecast by TTAC

Yesterday, we used 4.67 million for the half year as a base, to arrive at 9.34 million by the end of the year. Today, we use 4.81 million , to arrive at 9.63 million when the ball drops. Usually we use official data for these projections. We used the 4.67 millionafter they were communicated by GM ahead of its quarterly report, which we have now. Lets use what we should have used.

The world’s largest automakers are (like it or not, we don’t make the rules) decided by production, not by sales. The 4.67 million communicated by GM spokesman Jim Cain is a sales number. According to the Q2 report, GM and its joint ventures produced 4.816 million units worldwide in the first six months of 2012. So far the good news.

The bad news is that bottom line worldwide production grew only 1.9 percent. Some may make snarky comments that between production and sales some 146,000 cars are sitting around unsold, but let’s not get hung up on details.

It should be noted that Toyota also differentiates between production and sales, whereas Volkswagen only reports what they call “deliveries.” We use VW’s deliveries as production, because that’s what they usually report to OICA.

Also, there are “sales” and “sales” at GM. As the Q2 report says:

“GMNA vehicle sales primarily represent sales to the ultimate customer. GME, GMIO and GMSA vehicle sales primarily represent estimated sales to the ultimate customer. In countries where end customer data is not readily available other data sources, such as wholesale volumes, are used to estimate vehicle sales.”

Understood?

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12 Comments on “World’s Largest Automaker: TTAC Up-Revises GM’s Year-End Estimate By 300,000 Units...”


  • avatar
    NormSV650

    How about a solid report on World’s Largest Automaker-Recalls instaed of speculation of production which is adjustable? At a large portion of TTAC readers could see if their car applies.

  • avatar
    oboylepr

    Not too shabby at all. Any idea where Ford places globally Bertel?

  • avatar
    KixStart

    It’s only “good” news if they sell the extra 300,000 cars at decent prices.

    • 0 avatar
      highdesertcat

      Yeah, that’s pretty much the bad news. In my area GM is already advertising $8500 off all 2012 Avalanches and all 2012 Tahoes in stock for $34,500.

      And you get to take off another $500 if you opt out of the b/c (satisfaction guaranteed or GM MAY take it back). All Silverados can be had for cheap, depending on number of doors, cab, and bed length. Great time to buy that new GM car or truck!!!

      I know a couple of guys who have actually taken advantage of these low prices, but basically all they did was trade their old GM truck for a newer version, or more of the same.

      But, hey, if that makes you happy, why would anyone care? Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

      • 0 avatar
        KixStart

        My neighbor trades his GM trucks pretty frequently. And he always seems happy with the deal; “much newer truck for a lower payment.”

        I don’t know… maybe they extend his loan a few years every time and he now owes them on this one until 2035?

        There’s fire-sale pricing across the street on everything, too. You can get a ‘Bu for dirt. $thousands off the 2013 Eco, too. Volts lease for $249, although with a substantial down payment.

      • 0 avatar
        highdesertcat

        Kix, one of my Wednesday-night poker-playing buddies works at a GM dealership, and those boys and girls are just tickled pink to get a Silverado in trade. They make a killing selling used ones.

        Pricing on all GM products in my area is pretty darn good if you happen to be looking for such a vehicle. But in driving by most dealerships during the day, I see a lot of sales people just standing around inside the showroom because it is too damn hot outside to walk the lot.

        So, you’re right. GM has to move those additional 300,000 units because if they don’t, it doesn’t mean anything since nothing from nothing still leaves nothing.

      • 0 avatar
        MrWhopee

        @Highdesertcat: Makes sense. Kixstart’s neighbor’s dealer got one of the desirable used silverados, and get one of the new ones gathering dust on the lot off their lot. Win win!

      • 0 avatar
        KixStart

        HDC,

        I’m sure the dealer can make it work in the dealer’s favor, I just don’t see how it can work in my neighbor’s favor.

        His used truck must be worth less than the new one and with fire sale pricing on, less still. He’s doing this every two years.

        And GM should love this guy and treat him well… His wife doesn’t get cars as often but was driving one of the last Saturns and traded it in 2010 for a new Malibu. Chevy should work hard to keep his business.

      • 0 avatar
        highdesertcat

        “I just don’t see how it can work in my neighbor’s favor.”

        Kix, there are several ways it can work for your neighbor, and all it takes is a little money. Read the book, “the Millionaire Nextdoor” to gain an understanding of how appearances can be deceiving and how others manipulate their finances.

        Another thing that helps it all to work is the outrageous pricing of used vehicles these days. There are as many different philosophies as there are arm-chair philosophers on ttac about why used car prices are so high, and every arm-chair philosopher will spout their own favorite. I’ll spare you mine.

        But the bottom line, from what I have been told, is that the OEM spiffs a dealer on slow movers and the dealer is expected to pass that on to the buyer.

        Sometimes dealers use those spiffs and covert incentives to the dealers by giving the buyer a lot more for their trade-in than KBB recommends, but in the end the dealer sets the price on the used truck, and retails it at whatever the market will bear. And the market will bear….. a lot, ……as in Romney buys used truck for his aide whose truck fueled a bonfire.

        It’s all a game. It’s not whether you win or lose when you’re a dealer because your profit is couched — there is a minimum of money that each dealer has to make in order to stay in business.

        So ‘the house’ (the dealership) ALWAYS wins! The game then becomes about HOW they play the game. They never lose money. But WHERE they make their money, new vs used, is what determines how profitable they ultimately are.

        And each dealer has a different level of profit they need to make in order to stay in business, hence they also have a price for each and every customer that comes calling.

        And keep in mind that you always get a better deal from a dealer who does not floorplan or finance their stock. No interest charges to pay every month on unsold stock. I choose to deal with those.

        But if a vehicle has been on the lot for 120 days, and the dealership floorplans or finances, that is 4 months worth of interest that the sales manager has to add to the final sales price. So buy one that just got there.

        I could go on with dozens of examples but I won’t bore the all-knowing bean counters among us. I’ll save them for my new gig. After Labor Day I will teaching an undergrad and a graduate-level college class for the next ten weeks, so my presence on ttac will be minimal, if at all.

  • avatar
    ott

    This comment has nothing to do with this post. What the hell is up with the annoying ads popping up and trying to sell me an AirWick??? Not Cool!!!! Even as I type this comment the damn thing is starting up trying to sell me an AirWick yet AGAIN, AFTER I just clicked on the stupid thing to be quiet! Can TTAC moderate the ads that show up on their site as well, or just our comments? Anyway, thanks for letting me vent. K I’m good now.

  • avatar
    tikki50

    Im more than a little concerned about these “deals” because with said deals, they essentially have broken the business model. Thus not metting expectations on profit to volume. Which then just reinforces the numbers we all just seen. the Big losses are hidden in more ways that thought. And GM will tarnish any model possible for the sake of a sale including any possible residule left. Just drop the price of the friggin car and call it done, geez. Otherwise your numbers are going to be across the board month over month. Some sanity is needed here.


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