Toyota Raises Bar To 10 Million Units, Too High For GM
Toyota has decided to increase global production this year by about 300,000 units, The Nikkei [sub] reports, as usual for the Nikkei without quoting sources. If this is true, then it would bring global production numbers for Toyota and Lexus close to 9 million for the year. With Daihatsu and Hino, that number would be around 10 million. That is too high for GM to reach.
In February, Toyota had submitted a 2012 sales plan that called for 8.58 million Toyota and Lexus vehicles, and a grand total of 9.58 million units worldwide with Daihatsu and Hino included. In May, that plan was slightly up-revised to 8.7 million units in the Toyota/Lexus column. Daihatsu and Hino were not mentioned, leaving the grand total at 9.7 million. With the 300,000 unit increase, the grand total would now be exactly 10 million.
Since May, TTAC predicted that Toyota could end the year with slightly more than 10 million units produced. Recently, we reiterated this prediction.
After Volkswagen and Toyota had released global volumes for the half year, GM last week said that it had sold 4.67 million cars globally in the first six months. Exact data are expected in the imminent Q2 report.
6M ’126M ’11YoYProj ’12Toyota5,247,7773,375,69255.5%10,496,000GM4,670,0004,536,0003.0%9,340,000Volkswagen4,450,0004,090,0008.8%8,900,000This reflects anemic global growth of only 3 percent for General Motors, whereas Toyota grew 55.5 percent and Volkswagen 8.8 percent in the first half of 2012. Based on the data, and barring major disasters, we predict for the end of 2012:
- Toyota will end the year as the world’s largest automaker with around 10 million units made.
- GM will come in second, with a volume in the low 9 million.
- If Volkswagen will include Porsche in its sales for 2012 (to be expected) , the projected 8.9 million would rise to slightly more than 9 million.
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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One OEM? 10 million a year? OK, but what goes up always comes down, as there are only so many customers to go around. Standards of living are falling, not rising, especially in the USA. I don't care if it's Toyota, GM, Honda, Ford, VW or Chrysler, that kind of output can't be sustained unless an equal number of someone else's production falls, either at one company or several, which may happen and is likely. Perhaps it will come to a scenario seen in 1975's "Rollerball" movie, where only about 5 companies produce every consumer good and supply power in the world...
Actually, Automotive News just reported that Toyota plans to increase 2012 production from the former plan of 8.65M by 300,000 units (to 8.95M), not 10M, leaving them well behind GM. It appears one of you is wrong. My money is on AN.