By on August 1, 2012

Toyota has decided to increase global production this year by about 300,000 units, The Nikkei [sub] reports, as usual for the Nikkei without quoting sources. If this is true, then it would bring global production numbers for Toyota and Lexus close to 9 million for the year. With Daihatsu and Hino, that number would be around 10 million. That is too high for GM to reach.The Nikkei says the change was due to stronger than expected sales in the key Japanese and U.S. markets during the January-June half. The global increase is even more interesting in that Toyota recently was heard talking about taking production in Japan down a notch to account for an expected reduction of sales after the end of the Japanese subsidies.

February Plan Toyota Daihatsu Hino Total
Worldwide 8,580 21% 850 17% 150 23% 9,580 21%
Japan 1,630 36% 660 20% 40 16% 2,320 30%
Overseas 6,950 18% 200 9% 110 26% 7,260 18%
Plan May 8,700 850 150 9,700
New Plan 9,000 850 150 10,000

In February, Toyota had submitted a 2012 sales plan that called for 8.58 million Toyota and Lexus vehicles, and a grand total of 9.58 million units worldwide with Daihatsu and Hino included. In May, that plan was slightly up-revised to 8.7 million units in the Toyota/Lexus column. Daihatsu and Hino were not mentioned, leaving the grand total at 9.7 million. With the 300,000 unit increase, the grand total would now be exactly 10 million.

Since May, TTAC predicted that Toyota could end the year with slightly more than 10 million units produced. Recently, we reiterated this prediction.

After Volkswagen and Toyota had released global volumes for the half year, GM last week said that it had sold 4.67 million cars globally in the first six months. Exact data are expected in the imminent Q2 report.

6M ’12 6M ’11 YoY Proj ’12
Toyota 5,247,777 3,375,692 55.5% 10,496,000
GM 4,670,000 4,536,000 3.0% 9,340,000
Volkswagen 4,450,000 4,090,000 8.8% 8,900,000

This reflects anemic global growth of only 3 percent for General Motors, whereas Toyota grew 55.5 percent and Volkswagen 8.8 percent in the first half of 2012. Based on the data, and barring major disasters, we predict for the end of 2012:

  • Toyota will end the year as the world’s largest automaker with around 10 million units made.
  • GM will come in second, with a volume in the low 9 million.
  • If Volkswagen will include Porsche in its sales for 2012 (to be expected) , the projected 8.9 million would rise to slightly more than 9 million.
P.S.: The Nikkei article had been put on the wire at 2 am, when even the hardest working Toyotaite shares the futon with his tsuma. The morning after, word from Toyota is that they are “currently looking at a revised plan that is based on current circumstances, and we plan to announce it.”  Domo.



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23 Comments on “Toyota Raises Bar To 10 Million Units, Too High For GM...”

  • avatar
    el scotto

    This matters how?

  • avatar

    You really need to put an asterisk on that 55.5% tho. The tsunami has be recognised for all the Japanese manufacturers I should think to be fair.

  • avatar

    Anyone with sense should be able to remember that all the Japanese marques (sans Nissault)took massive hits last year due to natural disasters and are going to post obscene YoY gains due to a return to business-as-usual. I don’t think it really requires special explanation.

    Re: Scotto:

    Your point is taken…profit per unit is what matters, not volume. I want to know if GM is making any cheddar on those 9.3 million vehicles so they can pay me (us) the fuck back!

  • avatar

    If they made them right the first time they wouldn’t have to make so many.

    • 0 avatar

      BMW did something similar with that whole e46-cracking-subframe thing. What is your point?

      • 0 avatar

        BMW wasn’t No. 1 in recalls the last two years it was Toyota and Honda, respectively. So why isn’t Bertel raising the question of who will be the rcall king for 2012?

      • 0 avatar

        Well, the government tried everything it could in order to improve the appeal of a certain domestic brand. Looks like it didn’t work out all that well.

    • 0 avatar

      Manufacturing volume is hardly driven by recall situations. What do you think auto manus do…take back the recalled vehicle and replace it with a new one?

      Manufacturing volume is driven by inventory and sales.

      FWIW, most of the “recalls” I’ve seen on Toyota’s part over the past few years have been PR responses to a government witch-hunt…but everyone is welcome to form their own opinion.

      • 0 avatar

        jandrews – everyone is welcome to their own opinions but to subscribe all of the recalls Honda and Toyota have faced in the last few years as being a Government conspiracy is wrong. The one Norm linked to seems real, the recent 300,000 Honda CRV/Acura ILX one for doors potentially opening as well as the ones my ’08 Sienna had (that model had no UIA issues) seem real. So it would be wrong to just dismiss any recalls those companies issue.

        I do have to ask the question, if Ford or GM led in the recall count would there be a TTAC article on it?

      • 0 avatar

        Mike – Oh there are certainly some legitimate recalls. I’m saying the numbers are easily stuffed. How many of ToMoCo’s recalls in the past few years were for pedal-cutting related to the floormat idiocy that spurred up a few years back? If you stack floormats, you deserve to die, just like if you install your driver’s seat backwards and then reach around it to drive around town.

        Regardless of all that, my point was thus: Recalls don’t result in production volume, as Norm implied. That’s just asinine.

    • 0 avatar

      Well as long as we’re on the subject of recalls, how the heck did Honda come in number 2? The (former) darling of consumer reports and JD Power? Aren’t they like in 7th place worldwide, but they are number 2 in recalls?

  • avatar

    Norm, the story was about production at the top three automakers. It was not about recalls. Trying to change the subject is fanboy stuff.

  • avatar

    Not bad, not bad at all! Considering the tsunami and subsequent nuclear disaster on the Japanese OEM’s and their suppliers. Not to mention the disgusting attempt to sabotage Toyota by the Obama/UAW/GM trifecta. May they rot in hell!

    Okay fanboys, let the rightous anger flow….in 3-2-1….

    • 0 avatar

      Toyota? Pffft, boring appliance maker. Chevy Cruze, Malibu and Silverado 1500 – now that’s a fine choice for a true motoring connoisseur.

      • 0 avatar

        Ah yes I see! You are using a hitherto unknown and obscure meaning of the phrase “true motoring connoisseur”! How very clever! They say that Canadians do irony very well, well here is one Canadian that bows to one better than he at irony. Anyone who can equate a septic turd like a Cruze, a Malibu or a Silverado with vehicular excellence is indeed a master of the art!

  • avatar

    scathing comment retracted.

  • avatar

    The usual Japan Inc cheering gallery takes front and center stage. Pass the popcorn, I like having a front row seat to the decline of Western Civilization.
    I remember the the bumper sticker, “Buy a Lada, send a dissident to camp.” How about , “Buy a Toyota, better yet, a Hyundai, and send the tax base for that new school or library to Asia.”
    (Doesn’t have the same ring, even if equally true.)

  • avatar

    One OEM? 10 million a year? OK, but what goes up always comes down, as there are only so many customers to go around. Standards of living are falling, not rising, especially in the USA.

    I don’t care if it’s Toyota, GM, Honda, Ford, VW or Chrysler, that kind of output can’t be sustained unless an equal number of someone else’s production falls, either at one company or several, which may happen and is likely.

    Perhaps it will come to a scenario seen in 1975’s “Rollerball” movie, where only about 5 companies produce every consumer good and supply power in the world…

  • avatar
    doctor olds

    Actually, Automotive News just reported that Toyota plans to increase 2012 production from the former plan of 8.65M by 300,000 units (to 8.95M), not 10M, leaving them well behind GM.

    It appears one of you is wrong. My money is on AN.

    • 0 avatar

      Please read the article above.

      The “Toyota” AN is talking about is the Toyota and Lexus brands. You need to add Daihatsu and Hino. Common mistake, made all the time …

      How much money will you place on AN? Who will hold the bank?

      • 0 avatar
        doctor olds

        Thanks for the clarification!
        As far as money goes, that was a figure of speach. I am just a poor pensioner, can’t afford to bet real money!
        I am suitably chastised for poor attention to deal in reading your post, for what it is worth!

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