Toyota has decided to increase global production this year by about 300,000 units, The Nikkei [sub] reports, as usual for the Nikkei without quoting sources. If this is true, then it would bring global production numbers for Toyota and Lexus close to 9 million for the year. With Daihatsu and Hino, that number would be around 10 million. That is too high for GM to reach.The Nikkei says the change was due to stronger than expected sales in the key Japanese and U.S. markets during the January-June half. The global increase is even more interesting in that Toyota recently was heard talking about taking production in Japan down a notch to account for an expected reduction of sales after the end of the Japanese subsidies.
In February, Toyota had submitted a 2012 sales plan that called for 8.58 million Toyota and Lexus vehicles, and a grand total of 9.58 million units worldwide with Daihatsu and Hino included. In May, that plan was slightly up-revised to 8.7 million units in the Toyota/Lexus column. Daihatsu and Hino were not mentioned, leaving the grand total at 9.7 million. With the 300,000 unit increase, the grand total would now be exactly 10 million.
After Volkswagen and Toyota had released global volumes for the half year, GM last week said that it had sold 4.67 million cars globally in the first six months. Exact data are expected in the imminent Q2 report.
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This reflects anemic global growth of only 3 percent for General Motors, whereas Toyota grew 55.5 percent and Volkswagen 8.8 percent in the first half of 2012. Based on the data, and barring major disasters, we predict for the end of 2012:
- Toyota will end the year as the world’s largest automaker with around 10 million units made.
- GM will come in second, with a volume in the low 9 million.
- If Volkswagen will include Porsche in its sales for 2012 (to be expected) , the projected 8.9 million would rise to slightly more than 9 million.