With only a week to go for August, Kelley Blue Book predicts a surprising 18.7 percent increase in new car sales for the month, and sees the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) to hit 14.4 million units.
Says Kelley Blue Book chief analyst Alec Gutierrez:
“Although economic jitters remain top-of-mind for many, those consumers seeking replacement vehicles continue to opt for new cars with used-car values remaining high, Savvy consumers are likely opting to pay an extra $20 or $30 per month to buy or lease a new car than settle for a used vehicle with 20,000 miles or more.”
If the month comes in anywhere as predicted, there will be back-slapping in Germany, grins in Asia, and demure nods from Detroit. Volkswagen is seen adding on a whopping 50 percent in sales. Toyota and Honda are expected to improve 31 and 51 percent in August from soft sales one year ago due to inventory shortages stemming from the earthquake in Japan.
Toyota and Honda are winning the hearts to the retail customer, while Detroit is restocking rental fleets. “Toyota outsold General Motors three out of the seven months so far in 2012 in terms of retail sales volume,” said Guiterez. “The resurgence of Toyota and Honda is especially impressive when we consider that they have been able to regain market share without relying on fleet sales.”
In August, Kelley Blue Book expects Toyota and General Motors to be neck-and-neck for the retail sales crown, while Ford will likely beat Honda by 14,000 units or more. All three Detroit makers are expected to lose market share, with GM taking the most radical haircut.
|August Forecast By Kelley Blue Book|
|Sales Volume||Market Share|
|Ford Motor Company||191,600||174,800||9.60%||15.10%||16.30%||-1.20%|
|Toyota Motor Company||176,950||129,482||36.70%||13.90%||12.10%||1.80%|
|Nissan North America||105,000||91,541||14.70%||8.20%||8.50%||-0.30%|
Please keep in mind that these are projections only. The final numbers can and will change, especially due to the influence of fleet sales which are hard to predict. Please also watch this space for forecasts by Edmunds and TrueCar.