Kelley Blue Book Projects Strong August, Weak Detroit Market Share
With only a week to go for August, Kelley Blue Book predicts a surprising 18.7 percent increase in new car sales for the month, and sees the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) to hit 14.4 million units.
Says Kelley Blue Book chief analyst Alec Gutierrez:
“Although economic jitters remain top-of-mind for many, those consumers seeking replacement vehicles continue to opt for new cars with used-car values remaining high, Savvy consumers are likely opting to pay an extra $20 or $30 per month to buy or lease a new car than settle for a used vehicle with 20,000 miles or more.”
If the month comes in anywhere as predicted, there will be back-slapping in Germany, grins in Asia, and demure nods from Detroit. Volkswagen is seen adding on a whopping 50 percent in sales. Toyota and Honda are expected to improve 31 and 51 percent in August from soft sales one year ago due to inventory shortages stemming from the earthquake in Japan.
Toyota and Honda are winning the hearts to the retail customer, while Detroit is restocking rental fleets. “Toyota outsold General Motors three out of the seven months so far in 2012 in terms of retail sales volume,” said Guiterez. “The resurgence of Toyota and Honda is especially impressive when we consider that they have been able to regain market share without relying on fleet sales.”
In August, Kelley Blue Book expects Toyota and General Motors to be neck-and-neck for the retail sales crown, while Ford will likely beat Honda by 14,000 units or more. All three Detroit makers are expected to lose market share, with GM taking the most radical haircut.
August Forecast By Kelley Blue BookSales VolumeMarket ShareManufacturer12-Aug11-AugYOY%12-Aug11-AugYOY%General Motors225,950218,4793.40%17.70%20.40%-2.60%Ford Motor Company191,600174,8009.60%15.10%16.30%-1.20%Toyota Motor Company176,950129,48236.70%13.90%12.10%1.80%Chrysler Group142,600130,1199.60%11.20%12.10%-0.90%American Honda129,45082,32157.30%10.20%7.70%2.50%Hyundai-Kia119,66299,69320.00%9.40%9.30%0.10%Nissan North America105,00091,54114.70%8.20%8.50%-0.30%Volkswagen53,50035,55750.50%4.20%3.30%0.90%Total1,273,0001,072,37918.70%–––Please keep in mind that these are projections only. The final numbers can and will change, especially due to the influence of fleet sales which are hard to predict. Please also watch this space for forecasts by Edmunds and TrueCar.
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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Hyundai-Kia has recently passed Nissan in the US; Honda is next in line. Only H-K and VW don't have the tsunami to credit for their great YOY gains.
If you think about the company as a person, which you can, you can think of the company as a crazy person. Have you ever dealt with a crazy person? Does GM exist just to exist? Because they still call it a going concern? Beucause we're better than Chrysler? As long as GM makes just a little bit of money it will continue to exist and be propped up into existence and GM would like to STAY THE COURSE. It just wants to STAY THE COURSE. That's it, always. Chrysler has Jeep, Fiat and Chrysler all going for it, plus minivans. Ford is cool in North America. GM is less cool is North America and will be the budget, cheap brand. There's no doubting it. What a pathetic path. We're all just hoping for someone who won't STAY THE COURSE but GM will get squeezed out though. This is what the road to nowhere looks like. The transplants will steal marketshare and rule us...