Predictions for August new car sales scale higher and higher as we approach release day this coming week. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters expect sales to rise as high as 20 percent from a year ago.
On average, the polled experts expect a Seasonally Adjusted Average Rate (SAAR) of 14.2 million vehicles in August, a forecast that is in line with expectations by TrueCar and Kelley.
The augurs of Reuters also agree with Kelley and TrueCar that Detroit’s numbers could be better. Says Reuters:
“Gains by the U.S. automakers will be more muted, with GM expected up 2 to 6 percent. Ford sales are expected to increase 7 to 10 percent, while Chrysler’s <FIA.MI> are forecast to rise 8 to 12 percent. The market share of all three U.S. automakers is expected to fall from August 2011, but increase from July.
The opinions of analysts polled by Bloomberg (see table) also average out to a SAAR of 14.2 million, their guesses on GM performance range from +0.7 percent by Peter Nesvold of Jefferies to 6.4 percent by a bullish Jessica Caldwell.
| Analyst | GM | Ford | Chrysler | SAAR |
| Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) | 1.0% | 3.4% | 16.0% | 14.0 |
| Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) | 0.7% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 14.3 |
| Patrick Archambault (Goldman) | 1.2% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 13.9 |
| Joseph Spak (RBC) | 2.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 14.3 |
| Brian Johnson (Barclays) | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 14.2 |
| Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) | 3.9% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 14.3 |
| Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan) | NA | NA | NA | 14.0 |
| Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) | NA | NA | NA | 14.2 |
| John Sousanis (Ward’s) | 1.6% | 11.0% | 16.0% | 14.4 |
| George Magliano (IHS) | NA | NA | NA | 14.1 |
| Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) | NA | NA | NA | 14.5 |
| Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) | NA | NA | NA | 14.3 |
| Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) | 6.4% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 14.5 |
| Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) | 3.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 14.2 |
| Alec Gutierrez (Kelley) | 3.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 14.4 |
| Average | 3.0% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 14.2 |
Well it is great to see forecasts, but exactly how accurate have these guys been? Surely some have been much more accurate than others.
Bertel will do a Grade The Analysts later.
The one thing about grading the analysts, is that it penalizes analyst who don’t pick what the detroit 3 individual numbers will be. If you only pick SAAR, you are at the bottom.
Congratulation! You figured it out!
GM and the rest of “Detroit” may have a lackluster month overall but GM is claiming that Volt sales will reach an all-time high.
http://www.hybridcars.com/news/new-chevy-volt-sales-record-expected-august-50852.html
I am certainly curious to see August’s numbers, it could be an interesting month.
I think Jessica Caldwell has consistently been the best of the bunch if memory serves me correct.
That’s Neil Diamond? He looks more like Steven Tyler!
I would say Steven Tyler’s the one who looks like Neil Diamond, as he was around before Tyler. Plus it’s the hair and outfit. Ben Bernanke would look like Steven Tyler with that outfit and hair (minus the beard, of course!)
He only looks that way when plays his instrument with such intensity.
Frankly I’m just done with buying anything made by union labor, or at least trying to minimize it. That is heavily weighing my next new car purchase.
So you’re looking for cars made in Mexico or Japanese/German cars built in America? UAW/CAW, European country unions, South Korean unions, silly Japanese company unions, your decision matrix will be fairly small.