May Sales: Great, But Not Great Enough For Spoiled Analysts
GM up 11 percent. Ford up 13 percent. Chrysler up 30 percent. Nissan up 21 percent. Volkswagen up 28 percent. Toyota up a whopping 87 percent. A few months ago, these numbers would have set champagne corks and fireworks flying. Today, these numbers were greeted by a communal meh and by stocks of automakers going south.
People who only read headlines may think the sky is falling. “May auto sales disappoint; demand slows,” headlines Reuters.
The numbers are great, but not good enough for high expectations, caused by optimistic forecasts and exuberant analyst notes. If you don’t meet sky-high expectations, you get slaughtered.
Ironically, falling gas prices are fingered to dissuade people from buying cars. Swiss bank UBS says that higher fuel prices in the first quarter prompted consumers to swap older, less fuel-efficient models to lock in fuel savings.
Also, there is fear that the pent-up demand is not what it was said to be. Students of car crises know that steep falls are usually followed by a sudden pop until the market finds its new groove. The fear is that sales in the past months were the pop, and that we are heading into the groove. Whatever the groove may be.
AutomakerMay 2012May 2011Pct. chng.5 monthTable courtesy Automotive News [sub]
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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Hey, just a few questions. Why isn't Maserati counted as part of the "Chrysler Group"? Shouldn't it now be called the "Fiat Group" and include Chrysler, Dodge, Ram, Jeep, Fiat, Maserati, and Ferrari, (and soon Alfa Romeo)? Maybe its just technicalities. I'm also assuming that niche automakers fall into the other category: Farrari, Lamborghini, Bugatti, Lotus, etc or are swallowed up in the Volkswagen group (for Lambo and Bugatti obviously).
Mitsubishi should just give up. John