Grade The Analysts: The Bankers Have It

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

March was a great month for the auto industry, and an analyst’s Waterloo. The real-time data equipped heavy-weights of Edmunds, TrueCar and Kelley were solidly trounced by bankers with a better feel, better sources, or simply better luck. The podium of March’s “Grade The Analysts” is populated by brokers and bankers, the professional auto oracles have been degraded to also-runs.

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)19.0%4.1%35.0%14.40.0%8.9%8.9%2Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)13.0%7.9%29.0%14.50.7%8.9%9.6%3Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital)7.6%9.0%37.0%14.50.7%11.4%12.1%4Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)21.0%4.8%35.0%14.93.5%10.2%13.7%5Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)21.0%1.4%32.0%14.50.7%14.6%15.3%6Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)24.0%6.0%35.0%14.61.4%14.0%15.4%7Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)19.0%7.9%27.0%14.40.0%16.9%16.9%8Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)21.0%3.6%27.0%14.40.0%17.4%17.4%9Joseph Spak (RBC)18.0%6.2%21.0%14.40.0%20.2%20.2%10Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs)25.0%3.9%29.0%14.61.4%19.1%20.5%11Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NANANA14.40.0%300.0%300.0%12Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.40.0%300.0%300.0%13Matthew Stover (Guggenheim)NANANA14.50.7%300.0%300.7%14Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA14.50.7%300.0%300.7%15George Magliano (IHS Automotive)NANANA14.50.7%300.0%300.7%16Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA14.12.1%300.0%302.1%Average19.0%5.5%31.0%14.5Actual12.0%5.0%34.0%14.4

Peter Nesvold of Jefferies deservedly is spraying expensive champagne from his top position at the automotive analysts polled by Bloomberg. Nesvold called GM’s 19 percent on the dot, he was within a whisker’s width of Ford and Chrysler, he nailed the SAAR. Emmanuel Rosner in number 2 and Brian Johnson on three were less precise, but their guesses still were good enough to shame the nuclear-tipped crowd.

The real-time heavyweights of Edmunds, TrueCar and Kelley all aimed too high and missed. Too bad for Itay Michael and Alan Baum. Both called March SAAR exactly, but in this game, one can only win by naming a number for each of the Detroit dudes. Jeff Schuster misses the good old days when he played with the big boys. How does it feel down there?

Better luck in April!

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Akitadog Akitadog on Apr 04, 2012

    So the bankers came out smelling like roses. This is all so familiar...

  • Lorenzo Lorenzo on Apr 04, 2012

    Bankers again? They must have someone on the inside feeding them info. I'm guessing it's at Ford. With bankers holding all that debt, Ford has to feed them their own info and the industrial espionage results from other carmakers, if Ford ever wants to see its blue oval again.

  • Ronin It's one thing to stay tried and true to loyal past customers; you'll ensure a stream of revenue from your installed base- maybe every several years or so.It's another to attract net-new customers, who are dazzled by so many other attractive offerings that have more cargo capacity than that high-floored 4-Runner bed, and are not so scrunched in scrunchy front seats.Like with the FJ Cruiser: don't bother to update it, thereby saving money while explaining customers like it that way, all the way into oblivion. Not recognizing some customers like to actually have right rear visibility in their SUVs.
  • MaintenanceCosts It's not a Benz or a Jag / it's a 5-0 with a rag /And I don't wanna brag / but I could never be stag
  • 3-On-The-Tree Son has a 2016 Mustang GT 5.0 and I have a 2009 C6 Corvette LS3 6spd. And on paper they are pretty close.
  • 3-On-The-Tree Same as the Land Cruiser, emissions. I have a 1985 FJ60 Land Cruiser and it’s a beast off-roading.
  • CanadaCraig I would like for this anniversary special to be a bare-bones Plain-Jane model offered in Dynasty Green and Vintage Burgundy.
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