By on April 4, 2012

March was a great month for the auto industry, and an analyst’s Waterloo. The real-time data equipped heavy-weights of Edmunds, TrueCar and Kelley were solidly trounced by bankers with a better feel, better sources, or simply better luck. The podium of March’s “Grade The Analysts” is populated by brokers and bankers, the professional auto oracles have been degraded to also-runs.

Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 19.0% 4.1% 35.0% 14.4 0.0% 8.9% 8.9%
2 Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) 13.0% 7.9% 29.0% 14.5 0.7% 8.9% 9.6%
3 Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital) 7.6% 9.0% 37.0% 14.5 0.7% 11.4% 12.1%
4 Jessica Caldwell ( 21.0% 4.8% 35.0% 14.9 3.5% 10.2% 13.7%
5 Jesse Toprak ( 21.0% 1.4% 32.0% 14.5 0.7% 14.6% 15.3%
6 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) 24.0% 6.0% 35.0% 14.6 1.4% 14.0% 15.4%
7 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 19.0% 7.9% 27.0% 14.4 0.0% 16.9% 16.9%
8 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 21.0% 3.6% 27.0% 14.4 0.0% 17.4% 17.4%
9 Joseph Spak (RBC) 18.0% 6.2% 21.0% 14.4 0.0% 20.2% 20.2%
10 Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) 25.0% 3.9% 29.0% 14.6 1.4% 19.1% 20.5%
11 Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NA NA NA 14.4 0.0% 300.0% 300.0%
12 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA 14.4 0.0% 300.0% 300.0%
13 Matthew Stover (Guggenheim) NA NA NA 14.5 0.7% 300.0% 300.7%
14 Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA NA NA 14.5 0.7% 300.0% 300.7%
15 George Magliano (IHS Automotive) NA NA NA 14.5 0.7% 300.0% 300.7%
16 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA NA 14.1 2.1% 300.0% 302.1%
Average 19.0% 5.5% 31.0% 14.5
Actual 12.0% 5.0% 34.0% 14.4

Peter Nesvold of Jefferies deservedly is spraying expensive champagne from his top position at the automotive analysts polled by Bloomberg. Nesvold called GM’s 19 percent on the dot, he was within a whisker’s width of Ford and Chrysler, he nailed the SAAR. Emmanuel Rosner in number 2 and Brian Johnson on three were less precise, but their guesses still were good enough to shame the nuclear-tipped crowd.

The real-time heavyweights of Edmunds, TrueCar and Kelley all aimed too high and missed. Too bad for Itay Michael  and Alan Baum. Both called March SAAR exactly, but in this game, one can only win by naming a number for each of the Detroit dudes. Jeff Schuster misses the good old days when he played with the big boys. How does it feel down there?

Better luck in April!

Get the latest TTAC e-Newsletter!

3 Comments on “Grade The Analysts: The Bankers Have It...”

Back to TopLeave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Subscribe without commenting

Recent Comments

  • Re: Reader Review: 2014 Cadillac ATS

    bunkie - In general, I can confirm this. I have put over 50K miles (total mileage is 64K, I got it as a low-mileage CPO car) on my 2010 CTS. It had some noisy suspension...
  • Re: Reader Review: 2014 Cadillac ATS

    bball40dtw - “I’d be ok with that as long as its quick” -my wife twice a week-
  • Re: Junkyard Find: 2001 Pontiac Aztek AWD

    Duaney - Not mentioned is the legal system that allows tow companies to remove private parked vehicles and apply for ownership. It’s possible that the owner is...
  • Re: Bark’s Bites: Viva La Fiesta!

    spreadsheet monkey - ^^ This. Can’t you grab a Fiesta ST from Ford’s press fleet for a week, if you just want to scratch the hot hatch itch?
  • Re: Reader Review: 2014 Cadillac ATS

    Fred - Both my Audi and Acura allow you to turn off the AC. Can’t say for sure but I think most of the cars I tested had a manual mode that would turn off the AC....
  • Re: Bark’s Bites: Viva La Fiesta!

    Land Ark - Add me to the “Why not a Focus?” list. While haven’t driven the Fiesta, I have driven the Focus a few times. I enjoyed it and it is on my...
  • Re: Junkyard Find: 2001 Pontiac Aztek AWD

    Roberto Esponja - John, I realize you’re being ironic, but I agree with you in the sense that since the Aztek there have been other notably ugly vehicles that...
  • Re: Reader Review: 2014 Cadillac ATS

    CJinSD - This is a particularly hilarious idea to express in a review of a Cadillac. V8-6-4, Olds diesel, HT4100, Northstar; Cadillac’s last good engine was...
  • Re: Reader Review: 2014 Cadillac ATS

    bball40dtw - My solution to the MyFordTouch APIM problems is to drive the car into a ditch and set it on fire. My dealership asked me politely not to do that and a man...
  • Re: TTAC’s Own Bigtruckseriesreview Goes Viral

    Inside Looking Out - “Hey, somebody has to fight your wars.” Oh, he is so educated and so precious and his mama and papa waiting for him...

New Car Research

Get a Free Dealer Quote


  • Contributing Writers

  • Jack Baruth, United States
  • Brendan McAleer, Canada
  • Marcelo De Vasconcellos, Brazil
  • Vojta Dobes, Czech Republic
  • Matthias Gasnier, Australia
  • W. Christian 'Mental' Ward, Abu Dhabi
  • Mark Stevenson, Canada
  • Cameron Aubernon, United States
  • J Emerson, United States