Grade The Analysts: The Bankers Have It

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

March was a great month for the auto industry, and an analyst’s Waterloo. The real-time data equipped heavy-weights of Edmunds, TrueCar and Kelley were solidly trounced by bankers with a better feel, better sources, or simply better luck. The podium of March’s “Grade The Analysts” is populated by brokers and bankers, the professional auto oracles have been degraded to also-runs.

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)19.0%4.1%35.0%14.40.0%8.9%8.9%2Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)13.0%7.9%29.0%14.50.7%8.9%9.6%3Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital)7.6%9.0%37.0%14.50.7%11.4%12.1%4Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)21.0%4.8%35.0%14.93.5%10.2%13.7%5Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)21.0%1.4%32.0%14.50.7%14.6%15.3%6Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)24.0%6.0%35.0%14.61.4%14.0%15.4%7Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)19.0%7.9%27.0%14.40.0%16.9%16.9%8Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)21.0%3.6%27.0%14.40.0%17.4%17.4%9Joseph Spak (RBC)18.0%6.2%21.0%14.40.0%20.2%20.2%10Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs)25.0%3.9%29.0%14.61.4%19.1%20.5%11Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NANANA14.40.0%300.0%300.0%12Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.40.0%300.0%300.0%13Matthew Stover (Guggenheim)NANANA14.50.7%300.0%300.7%14Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA14.50.7%300.0%300.7%15George Magliano (IHS Automotive)NANANA14.50.7%300.0%300.7%16Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA14.12.1%300.0%302.1%Average19.0%5.5%31.0%14.5Actual12.0%5.0%34.0%14.4

Peter Nesvold of Jefferies deservedly is spraying expensive champagne from his top position at the automotive analysts polled by Bloomberg. Nesvold called GM’s 19 percent on the dot, he was within a whisker’s width of Ford and Chrysler, he nailed the SAAR. Emmanuel Rosner in number 2 and Brian Johnson on three were less precise, but their guesses still were good enough to shame the nuclear-tipped crowd.

The real-time heavyweights of Edmunds, TrueCar and Kelley all aimed too high and missed. Too bad for Itay Michael and Alan Baum. Both called March SAAR exactly, but in this game, one can only win by naming a number for each of the Detroit dudes. Jeff Schuster misses the good old days when he played with the big boys. How does it feel down there?

Better luck in April!

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Akitadog Akitadog on Apr 04, 2012

    So the bankers came out smelling like roses. This is all so familiar...

  • Lorenzo Lorenzo on Apr 04, 2012

    Bankers again? They must have someone on the inside feeding them info. I'm guessing it's at Ford. With bankers holding all that debt, Ford has to feed them their own info and the industrial espionage results from other carmakers, if Ford ever wants to see its blue oval again.

  • ToolGuy North America is already the greatest country on the planet, and I have learned to be careful about what I wish for in terms of making changes. I mean, if Greenland wants to buy JDM vehicles, isn't that for the Danes to decide?
  • ToolGuy Once again my home did not catch on fire and my fire extinguisher(s) stayed in the closet, unused. I guess I threw my money away on fire extinguishers.(And by fire extinguishers I mean nuclear missiles.)
  • Carson D The UAW has succeeded in organizing a US VW plant before. There's a reason they don't teach history in the schools any longer. People wouldn't make the same mistakes.
  • B-BodyBuick84 Mitsubishi Pajero Sport of course, a 7 seater, 2.4 turbo-diesel I4 BOF SUV with Super-Select 4WD, centre and rear locking diffs standard of course.
  • Corey Lewis Think how dated this 80s design was by 1995!
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