Forecasters Expect Extremely Strong March

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

This coming Monday, new car sales for March will be announced. Forecasters increasingly are of the opinion that March will look like carmageddon never happened. Real-time data equipped TrueCar has released its opinions. Here are the highlights:

  • For March 2012, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,416,703 units, up 13.7 percent from March.
  • The March 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 14.5 million new car sales, up from 13.1 million in March 2011 and down from 15.1 million in February 2012.
  • The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,440 in March 2012, which represents a decrease of 1.5 percent from February 2012 and decrease of 1.7 percent from March 2011.

Says Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Market Intelligence for TrueCar:

“We are looking at a record-breaking month for many manufacturers in March with Hyundai, Nissan and Volkswagen expected to have their highest unit sales ever in the U.S.We also forecast that Chrysler, Ford, GM, Honda and Toyota will have an extremely strong month, with some of the highest unit sales in years. Due to stronger than expected recovery, we’ve increased our sales forecast another 3.6 percent, from 14.0 million unit sales to 14.5 million unit sales in 2012.“

TrueCar Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for March 2012

ManufacturerMarch ForecastYoYChrysler160,25631.20%Ford215,1821.40%GM249,88720.90%Honda145,5948.90%Hyundai/Kia126,35119.10%Nissan129,1886.60%Toyota195,29810.80%Volkswagen49,22533.10%Industry1,416,70313.70%

TrueCar Market Share Forecasts for March 2012

ManufacturerMarch ForecastFeb-12Mar-11Chrysler11.30%11.70%9.80%Ford15.20%15.50%17.00%GM17.60%18.20%16.60%Honda10.30%9.60%10.70%Hyundai/Kia8.90%8.40%8.50%Nissan9.10%9.30%9.70%Toyota13.80%13.90%14.10%Volkswagen3.50%3.40%3.00%

TrueCar Incentive Spending Forecasts for March 2012

ManufacturerMarch ’12MoMYoYChrysler$3,137-1.80%5.60%Ford$2,726-3.80%-2.80%GM$3,1440.90%-5.10%Honda$2,122-0.20%-8.10%Hyundai/Kia$8824.80%-30.60%Nissan$3,115-3.70%28.00%Toyota$1,7045.20%-13.50%Volkswagen$2,021-2.70%4.50%Industry$2,440-1.50%-1.70%

With 1.42 million cars for March, TrueCar is relatively conservative. Kelley forecasted 1.43 million. TrueCar’s colleagues at Edmunds forecast 1.44 million. Edmunds will supply an updated forecast on Thursday.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • APaGttH APaGttH on Mar 27, 2012

    Toyota and Honda should show some really big YoY numbers starting next month for the next six months or so as they will be compared against last year earthquake/tsunami numbers. Although it happened in March 2011, it shouldn't reflect in these numbers as inventory wasn't adversely impacted until May. Anything on the six week boat ride from factory to dealer was already off the shore in March last year. We'll see if GM really hits that 20.8% number.

    • See 2 previous
    • Fusion Fusion on Mar 27, 2012

      @mike978 In March 2011, the market grew by 17% (compared to March 2010). Yet Toyotas sales (including Scion and Lexus) declined by 6%. So no - March 2011 should not be a high bar for Toyota to beat, but the same could have been said for the first two months of this year. Yet Toyota also performed weaker than the market then...

  • PenguinBoy PenguinBoy on Mar 27, 2012

    Does VW even belong on this list? There seems to be quite a gap between Hyundai at 8.5% market share, and VW at 3%. Are there other makers in between? I'm not sure where brands like Mazda, Subaru, etc. sit but I would think there must be someone between VW and Hyundai...

    • See 1 previous
    • Fusion Fusion on Mar 27, 2012

      No, at least in 2012 so far there wasn't. Mazda, Subaru and BMW are the closest followers, and they are all about .5 percent behind VW. And also notice that VW's numbers don't include Audi, which would put them about .8 percent higher. And since this is a "Top 8" list, VW does belong onto it. One could of course ask, why this is a Top 8 list, instead of Top 5, Top 10 or whatever. ;)

  • MaintenanceCosts It's not a Benz or a Jag / it's a 5-0 with a rag /And I don't wanna brag / but I could never be stag
  • 3-On-The-Tree Son has a 2016 Mustang GT 5.0 and I have a 2009 C6 Corvette LS3 6spd. And on paper they are pretty close.
  • 3-On-The-Tree Same as the Land Cruiser, emissions. I have a 1985 FJ60 Land Cruiser and it’s a beast off-roading.
  • CanadaCraig I would like for this anniversary special to be a bare-bones Plain-Jane model offered in Dynasty Green and Vintage Burgundy.
  • ToolGuy Ford is good at drifting all right... 😉
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