Edmunds Sees SAARing March Sales
It will be a suspenseful Monday. When new car sales numbers will be announced for March, I could look like carmageddon never happened. After J.D. Power had predicted sales of 1,372,400 units for March and Kelley Blue Book 1,425,000 units, real-time date equipped Edmunds now sees a total of 1,451,956 new cars changing hands. That would translate into a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 14.9 million units.
Edmunds Sales Projections March
12-Mar11-MarYoYGM249,137206,62120.60%Ford222,564212,2954.80%Toyota215,122176,22222.10%Chrysler164,226121,73034.90%Honda139,431133,6504.30%Nissan136,812121,14112.90%Industry1,451,9561,246,05916.50%Edmunds says that loosening credit and a shift to more fuel-efficient small cars drives auto sales to a 16.5 percent increase over March 2011. Says Jessica Caldwell, Senior Analyst at Edmunds.com.
“After delaying purchases over the last couple of years, consumers are eager to jump into the new car market. Vehicle trade-in rates have achieved sustained highs in recent months, which suggests that consumers have decided that they’ve held on to their cars for too long. And with the average credit score for new car buyers at its lowest level since the first half of 2008, the market is clearly becoming a friendlier place for all buyers.”
Edmunds Market Share Projections March
12-Mar11-MarYoYGM17.20%16.60%0.60%Ford15.30%17.00%-1.70%Toyota14.80%14.10%0.70%Chrysler11.30%9.80%1.50%Honda9.60%10.70%-1.10%Nissan9.40%9.70%-0.30%Edmunds sees Chrysler celebrating a one year anniversary of more than ten percent market share. Edmunds predicts Toyota to be the top performer among the Big 3 Japanese automakers, due to healthier inventory and favorable pricing.
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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It will be interesting to see if this data is what actually happens. This link http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/03/forecasters-expect-extremely-strong-march/#comments indicates Toyota along with Honda losing market share. Also the Nissan data seems quite different between the realtime analysts. I won`t bet against Edmunds since they were the best last year at predicting the market. BS - do you think this will last, since you were skeptical about "pent-up demand" in the past.
This is starting to look like Dr Grey's hurricane predictions for the coming season, lots of guesswork, mostly wrong all the time.