Chinese Car Sales Go Limp

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

China’s February new car sales are in, and they are whatever you want them to be. They are up a lot if you look at February alone. They are down if you look at the first two months of the year. They are confused for those who don’t know where to look.

1.6087 million automobiles (all kinds) were produced in China in February, up 28.48 percent year-on-year. Sales of new autos amounted to 1.5671 million, an increase of 24.51 percent. This according to data published by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) on Friday.

The results for January and February are thoroughly skewed, because this year, the Chinese New Year holidays fell into January, in 2011, the holidays were observed in February. The CAAM thankfully provides a two month picture. In January and February combined, automobile sales of 2.9543 million were recorded, down 5.96 percent year-on-year. Passenger car sales in the two month period were 2.3737 million, down 4.37 percent. In the same period, commercial vehicles amounted to 580,600 units, down 11.91 percent.

The continued weakness in the commercial vehicle sector does not bode well for the Chinese economy. In the business, commercial vehicle sales are seen as a leading indicator, passenger vehicle sales are commonly used as a trailing indicator. Weak commercial sales usually impact (Wuling-) van heavy GM. Due to strong sales of the Buick and Chevrolet brands, along with a record February for Wuling, GM and its Chinese joint ventures recorded an increase of 7.7 percent for the first two months of the year.

Copying the numbers released by the CAAM shouldn’t be too hard, but apparently, it is. Whereas officious organs, such as Xinhua, China Daily and Associated Press use the correct (rounded) number of 24.5 percent, other media, such as The Economic Times or Automotive News say the number was 26.5. That’s the number for passenger vehicle, gentlemen. Or maybe not: Chinaautoweb says passenger vehicle sales grew 25.2 percent.

The weakness in the car sector does not deter analysts. J.D. Power analyst Geoff Broderick says vehicle sales in China could jump as high as 35 million a year by 2018 — a near doubling of the market, the Wall Street Journal writes.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Shaker Shaker on Mar 11, 2012

    Isn't there a relative shortage of the model pictured? I mean, because of the "one child" birth policy of the Chinese gov't forced upon their citizens, and the high "death" rate of female babies born to those parents in the agrarian hinterlands, this example of Chinese art would be less than 50% of the population... What kind of car is that?

    • See 1 previous
    • Shaker Shaker on Mar 12, 2012

      @th009 Ah, yes - and the chevrons are pointing almost straight up... how apropos!

  • Volt 230 Volt 230 on Mar 11, 2012

    Mao must be turning in his grave!

    • Skor Skor on Mar 11, 2012

      Mao was a horn-dog.....really like the ladies....lots of them. Look it up if you don't believe me.

  • ToolGuy This might be a good option for my spouse when it becomes available -- thought about reserving one but the $500 deposit is a little too serious. Oh sorry, that was the Volvo EX30, not the Mustang. Is Volvo part of Ford? Is the Mustang an EV? I'm so confused.
  • Mikey My late wife loved Mustangs ..We alway rented one while travelling . GM blood vetoed me purchasing one . 3 years after retirement bought an 08 rag top, followed by a 15 EB Hard top, In 18 i bought a low low mileage 05 GT rag with a stick.. The car had not been properly stored. That led to rodent issues !! Electrical nightmare. Lots of bucks !! The stick wasn't kind to my aging knees.. The 05 went to a long term dedicated Mustang guy. He loves it .. Today my garage tenant is a sweet 19 Camaro RS rag 6yl Auto. I just might take it out of hibernation this weekend. The Mustang will always hold a place in my heart.. Kudos to Ford for keeping it alive . I refuse to refer to the fake one by that storied name .
  • Ajla On the Mach-E, I still don't like it but my understanding is that it helps allow Ford to continue offering a V8 in the Mustang and F-150. Considering Dodge and Ram jumped off a cliff into 6-cylinder land there's probably some credibility to that story.
  • Ajla If I was Ford I would just troll Stellantis at all times.
  • Ronin It's one thing to stay tried and true to loyal past customers; you'll ensure a stream of revenue from your installed base- maybe every several years or so.It's another to attract net-new customers, who are dazzled by so many other attractive offerings that have more cargo capacity than that high-floored 4-Runner bed, and are not so scrunched in scrunchy front seats.Like with the FJ Cruiser: don't bother to update it, thereby saving money while explaining customers like it that way, all the way into oblivion. Not recognizing some customers like to actually have right rear visibility in their SUVs.
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