By on February 3, 2012

The year begins with our analysts in utter disarray. Reality destroyed all projections, even the finely honed real-time forecasting models of TrueCar, Edmunds and Kelley Blue Book are left as smoking wrecks. In the end, familiar names won our January Grade The Analyst, but only because others finished much worse.

Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) -9.4% 8.0% 34.0% 13.60 4.09% 14.40% 18.49%
2 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) -8.9% 9.2% 35.0% 13.40 5.50% 14.10% 19.60%
3 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) -9.1% 8.1% 33.0% 13.40 5.50% 15.20% 20.70%
4 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) -4.0% 10.0% 31.0% 13.70 3.39% 18.00% 21.39%
5 Joseph Spak (RBC) 0.6% 1.8% 36.0% 13.50 4.80% 19.80% 24.60%
6 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) -5.4% 14.0% 33.0% 13.20 6.91% 18.60% 25.51%
7 Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) -10.0% 13.0% 31.0% 13.50 4.80% 23.00% 27.80%
8 Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital) -12.0% -1.0% 23.0% 13.20 6.91% 35.00% 41.91%
9 Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan) NA NA NA 13.50 4.80% 300.00% 304.80%
10 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA NA 13.50 4.80% 300.00% 304.80%
11 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA 13.50 4.80% 300.00% 304.80%
12 Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NA NA NA 13.40 5.50% 300.00% 305.50%
13 Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA NA NA 13.40 5.50% 300.00% 305.50%
14 George Magliano (IHS Automotive) NA NA NA 13.20 6.91% 300.00% 306.91%
Average -7.3% 7.9% 32.0% 13.40
Actual -6.0% 7.0% 44.0% 14.18

Overall, the creme-de-la-creme of the Nation’s auto analysts missed the January SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) by nearly a million when polled by Bloomberg a day before the actual January sales came in. The eight analysts that submitted projections for the Detroit 3 (the only way to win this game) guessed way too low on Chrysler, were in the ball park (but too optimistic) on Ford, and too pessimistic on GM.

Finally, Jesse Toprak of TrueCar narrowly squeezed by Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds, winner of  The Top Analyst Crown 2011 . Kelley Blue Book’s real time model disappointed.

TrueCar had a bit of a rough time lately, they can use some good news.

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12 Comments on “Grade The Analysts: Shape Up, Ladies & Gentlemen!...”


  • avatar
    mpresley

    Tiffany and Calvin? Uh…I guess.

    • 0 avatar
      Robbie

      The ad seems to play on the idea that anyone who is not a US-born white middle-aged male may overpay when haggling at a dealership. This is probably true to some extent.

    • 0 avatar
      tekdemon

      A long time ago when Carsdirect actually offered guaranteed and competitive prices much like TrueCar does now I helped my immigrant parents buy a car through it and they were pretty happy with it so I can see why TrueCar might actually appeal quite a bit to this segment of consumer. People who are internet savvy and speak perfect English can probably barter a lot harder and less awkwardly (oh man, I remember taking my mom car shopping with me once and I’ll just say that her version of bargaining was really poorly suited to buying cars).

    • 0 avatar
      klossfam

      Calvin named after the jeans and Tiffany after the fine jewelry…Hmmm

      I guess the Chevy Sonic was named after the hedgehog (a little video game historical reference for everyone).

      On Chrysler, ‘yes’ they are back but they had nowhere to go but UP vs the offerings they had in Jan 2011…So a BIG number was not out of the question…

  • avatar
    GS650G

    Maybe in the next commercial Tiffany can express her opinion, if her husband so allows.

    • 0 avatar
      NotFast

      Don’t make fun of the mutes!!

    • 0 avatar
      tekdemon

      She likely speaks very little English or simply got edited out (have you ever been interviewed by a news crew? They edit almost everything out). Quit being a racist douche. When I was growing up my mom barely spoke English at first since she had just gotten to the states so of course my dad (who had just graduated from college in the US) did most of the English speaking when we went out. Doesn’t mean that my mom didn’t express herself though, when people were being rude jackasses to us she’d just flip them off, lol.

      Most modern Asian guys (yes, the people actually from Asia) are pretty awesome husbands. To the extent that there’s a ton of cross border marriages with Russian women (the fact that Russian men have a life expectancy of a horrible 63 years largely from insanely high rates of alcoholism in Russia might have something to do with this):
      http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/dispatches/features/2009/where_russia_meets_china/why_are_siberian_russians_drawn_to_china.html

      • 0 avatar
        mpresley

        Many men wouldn’t mind it so much if their wives didn’t speak English. Or any other language, for that matter. BTW, my wife is Chinese, and she practices both restraint with propriety in speech. Something all women should learn. And men too. But I always know, and hear about it, when the time comes.

  • avatar
    michal1980

    Guy needs new dreams, if his dream car is a Mini-Van.

    • 0 avatar
      klossfam

      If his dream car is a minvan, Calvin should use the commercial spot to see if he can get someone to ‘take him out’…

      I kid of course – sort a – as I’ve had a 1996 Ford Windstar and 2001 Honda Odyssey in my past…BUT I’m glad those days have come and gone…

  • avatar
    Steven02

    I am not sure why you lump all of the people who don’t list individual OEMs together with those who do and then count the OEM numbers against them. Seems kind of odd.

    Also, does anyone rank how they think all of the major OEMs do in the US on a monthly basis? Would be interesting to see that more than just the D2.5.


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