Kelley Predicts 900,000 Cars For January, 13.3 Million For the Year – Edmunds Thinks Kelley Is Wrong
We must be going into the last week of the month: The sales forecasts are beginning to arrive. In January, some 900,000 cars should change hands, 10 percent more than January 2011, but a whopping 30 percent below December. GM will be the only major automaker with a minus, both before the growth number and the market share.
This is the prediction of Kelley Blue Book. Kelley expects 2012 to bring slight, but not earthshaking gains. Kelley thinks the U.S. will be a 13.3 million unit market this year. Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst at Kelley says:
“Our analysts have produced a regression model that explores unemployment, housing, consumer confidence and seasonal patterns to assist with our sales forecast for the year. Given current market conditions and our expectations for 2012, we believe sales will continue to improve at a conservative pace in 2012.”
For January, this is what Kelley thinks automakers will report (or something close to it … :)
Sales VolumeMarket ShareManufacturerJan-12JanYOY %Jan-12Jan-11YOY%2011General Motors169,200178,887-5.40%18.80%21.80%-3.00%Ford Motor Company144,900126,98114.10%16.10%15.50%0.60%Toyota Motor Corp.121,500115,8564.90%13.50%14.10%-0.60%Chrysler Group93,60070,99331.80%10.40%8.70%1.70%American Honda Motor Co.81,00076,2686.20%9.00%9.30%-0.30%Hyundai-Kia80,10065,00223.20%8.90%7.90%1.00%Nissan North America79,20071,84710.20%8.80%8.80%0.00%Total:900,000819,3949.80%–––Edmunds currently expects a weaker January of around 795k, and a SAAR of 12.1m. Edmunds.com Vice Chairman Jeremy Anwyl says:
“January’s sales decline suggests that the ‘mini bubble’ of deferred sales from last summer is already deflating. Edmunds.com expected the market to start moving in this direction, but the news might come as a surprise to some in the industry who thought that the industry’s strong finish in 2011 would continue unabated into 2012.”
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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Why do they think Chrysler will increase sales 30% in January?
What bad news did I miss about GM? I thought the stable was pretty well full of wonderful new models. Are these missing sales being lost to Chrylser's improved Italian interiors? If not that, what? Seriously, I understand Chrysler's jump is because when sales have been in the ditch getting back to ground level is a statistically big improvement. However knowing that ISN'T the answer doesn't help me understand the reason for low GM and Honda sales while Ford and Chrysler are moving upward. Can somebody explain for me? Bueller?