By on January 5, 2012

Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds again is the clear winner of the December round of Grade The Analysts. She won by hitting the official SAAR (13.65) close enough. She really won by making the highest precision forecast for the Detroit Three. Caldwell also is the undisputed winner of four months of Grade The Analyst, winning her the coveted “TTAC  11” (a.k.a. “The Top Analyst Crown 2011”).

Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrys  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 5.1% 7.8% 37.0% 13.40 1.83% 2.30% 4.13%
2 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 5.5% 8.3% 35.0% 13.40 1.83% 4.20% 6.03%
3 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 4.2% 6.8% 34.0% 13.50 1.10% 7.00% 8.10%
4 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 4.5% 7.0% 33.0% 13.30 2.56% 7.50% 10.06%
5 Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital) 2.4% 6.4% 34.0% 13.50 1.10% 9.20% 10.30%
6 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 6.2% 7.9% 33.0% 13.20 3.30% 7.30% 10.60%
7 Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) 1.0% 9.0% 31.0% 13.40 1.83% 11.00% 12.83%
8 Joseph Spak (RBC) 6.0% 8.0% 30.0% 13.20 3.30% 10.00% 13.30%
9 Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan) NA NA  NA 13.50 1.10% 300.00% 301.10%
10 Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NA NA  NA 13.50 1.10% 300.00% 301.10%
11 Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)    NA NA  NA 13.50 1.10% 300.00% 301.10%
12 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)     NA NA  NA 13.50 1.10% 300.00% 301.10%
13 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA  NA 13.40 1.83% 300.00% 301.83%
14 George Magliano (IHS Automotive)   NA NA  NA 13.30 2.56% 300.00% 302.56%
Average 4.4% 7.7% 33.0% 13.40
Actual 5.0% 10.0% 37.0% 13.65

Looking back over four months of Grade The Analysts, Caldwell took fist place three out of four times. Having access to real-time data apparently is not everything. Jesse Toprak of Truecar, who also has access to real time data, came in third three out of four times, and once took 5th. Second place was occupied by a changing cast of bankers & brokers.

We had already given up on Bloomberg’s panel, which usually peers in its crystal ball BEFORE the year comes to an end. Finally, in the wee hours of Jan 4, the day the official results were scheduled to come in, Bloomberg caught up with its panel. Without it, there would have been nothing to grade.

The grading of the analysts was not degraded by both Daimler and BMW withholding December numbers. Autodata, which calculates the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, chose to ignore the dilly-dallying Deutsche and came out with a 13.65 million SAAR yesterday afternoon.

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21 Comments on “Grade The Analysts: Caldwell Carries Month And Year...”


  • avatar
    Nikko River

    It may just be my browser, but it looks like there is a formatting issue as the last column of the table (Overall) is cut off. It looks fine in the “print” version though.

  • avatar
    Jack Baruth

    Perhaps Herr Schmitt will be gracious enough to let me deliver the award in person. Like the Nobel, the TTAC 11 comes with a mild financial bonus: dinner and unlimited drinks in a restaurant.

  • avatar
    APaGttH

    Wow, at the minimum a double threat. Smokin’ hot looks and a brain to go with the face and that million dollar smile.

  • avatar
    Domestic Hearse

    When I first saw this young lass’s photo, my first thought was, “Jack’s going to try to hit that.”

    Upon clicking through, the first post to this story did not disappoint.

    I wish you well, Jack, and expect a full report upon your return.

  • avatar
    shappy

    Guys, go take a cold shower, she is married.

    And why is nobody commenting on her skill at analyzing and predicting the often difficult to pin down auto market?

  • avatar
    George B

    Does this mean that Edmunds is doing a great job of collecting sales information or that Jessica Caldwell is especially skilled at interpreting the available data to make an estimate? However she did it, her estimate was much more precise than that of higher paid analysts working in the financial industry.

  • avatar
    stottpie

    i saw her at the LA auto show. she is TALL, which can be intimidating for an average size dude.

  • avatar
    lilpoindexter

    She can grade my analysis ANYTIME.

  • avatar
    niky

    This simply further cements my opinion that Edmunds is still the best major online automotive magazine (read: non-blog) out there… at least from a consumer point of view. Thankfully, they even cater to gearheads, via Inside Line.

  • avatar
    bomberpete

    Even if the fetching Ms. Caldwell weren’t married, I’m sure her Ivy-educated reaction to Baruth is that he’s a bit of a showoff, probably living off daddy’s money, undoubtedly the type who boasts and brags to the boys, and is perhaps compensating for
    feelings of inade…..well, you get the idea.

    I’m really not trying to troll here; I think Jack’s an awesome writer. Maybe it’s 5 years of being married to a feminist, but I just hate it when he objectifies women. If Jack’s girlfriend hasn’t done it already, he deserves to be put in his place.


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