Fun With Numbers: Toyota Fools The Wall Street Journal

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

Today, Toyota announced its revised sales plan for the calendar year 2012. The plan exceeds an already ambitious plan submitted in December. It also exceeds the numerical comprehension skills of journalists from the Wall Street Journal on down.

The new target still falls well short of the more than 9 million vehicles sold last year by the world’s largest auto maker, General Motors Co., meaning Toyota is unlikely to easily win back the No. 1 spot anytime soon.

Toyota expects to sell 100,000 more vehicles than it previously expected in its home market this year as a result of a government decision last month to reintroduce subsidies for fuel-efficient cars.

That expected boost caused it to raise its global sales target by the same amount to 8.58 million vehicles, representing a 21% gain on the previous year.”

So says the Wall Street Journal, and it is not true. Its Tokyo reporter Yoshio Takahashi should know better, but for some reason, he does not. Takahashi-san, and the WSJ fell into a trap trained observers of the numbers game know to avoid. The Wall Street Journal mistook the Toyota brand’s numbers for the numbers of all of Toyota. Which also includes Daihatsu and Hino.

Let’s go step by step. In today’s press release, and with little fanfare, Toyota disclosed sales numbers for 2011. Here they are:

Sales 2011ToyotaDaihatsuHinoTotalWorldwide7,100-6%730-7%12014%7,950Japanese1,200-23%550-10%3017%1,780Overseas5,900-1%180-4%9012%6,170

As expected, Toyota’s global sales were below 8 million, 7.95 million to be exact. This puts Toyota squarely in the #3 position behind GM and Volkswagen, a ranking which we had predicted for many months.

Today, Toyota also disclosed a revised sales plan for 2012. Here it is:

UnitsChangeWorldwide8,58021%Japan1,63036%Overseas6,95018%

This plan is 100,000 units higher than the December plan on more optimistic sales projections for Japan. The plan was up-revised after the Japanese government announced that it would continue to subsidize fuel-efficient cars (which is pretty much a subsidy for most cars in Japan.)

Now where is the mistake? The 8.58 million are for the Toyota (and Lexus) brands only. They do not include Daihatsu and Hino. Once you are in the context of the more than 9 million cars sold by GM, you need to stay in the context of all brands. Kudos to Reuters and Bloomberg for getting it right.

What is Toyota’s projection as a whole? Toyota does not make one. Neither last December not today does TMC project numbers for Daihatsu and Hino. If one would raise TMC as a whole by 21 percent, the number would be 9.6 million, and far greater than what GM reported for last year. To do so however would be reckless, Toyota does not give a basis for this assumption. However, even if one would assume that Daihatsu’s and Hino’s sales would be flat, the grand total for this year would be 9.4 million. If Toyota delivers on the plan published today, that is.

All we know today: This year, the race for the top spot will have much more suspense than last year.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

More by Bertel Schmitt

Comments
Join the conversation
 2 comments
  • NormSV650 NormSV650 on Jan 25, 2012

    Projections, projections, tsunami, earthquake. Projections all gone. Is Japanese subsidy for car purchase similar % as the US?

  • Dukeofurl Dukeofurl on Jan 25, 2012

    The previous subsidy was Y300,000 which is equivalent to $US3500 or so. The money will be added to the Government deficit.

  • Dukeisduke Is the Volvo EX30 even on sale yet? It was pulled from the NACTOY awards because they were having software problems with the vehicle.
  • Wjtinfwb If you've only got 5k to spend on transportation, I cannot imagine a worse way to spend it than on a GM orphan from Sweden that's 15 years old with 150k on the clock and limited plus expensive parts availability and dwindling techs who'd even want to work on it. Go find a similar vintage Camry or Accord with 150k miles or even a Ford or a Chevy, whatever. Hell, even an old Jaguar is less of a crapshoot than a Saab. At least you can still get parts.
  • Kwik_Shift Brands that were considered from China include BYD, Dayun, Great Wall Motors, Maxus, Nio, Omoda/Chery, Seres, XPeng, and Zeekr. KG Mobility from South Korea also made the list of candidates.That's a lot of car companies from there ready to head here.
  • Analoggrotto Clean sweep and unanimous victory for the world affluence engine of 22nd century : Hyundai/Kia/Genesis. Toyota and Lexus, for 120 years of history have not been able to capture the zenith superlative status of Hyundai Motor Corporation the most awarded, decorated and revered automotive corporation in the history of historical. Featuring best ever, first ever and greatest ever e-ATPs the Hyundai Genesis Kia lineup is posed to become the envy of every country club, ivy league college and fortune 500 corporation in the world. I've been taking a roadtrip in my loaner Elantra N, visiting colleges from east to west, elite universities of higher learning to inspect their parking lots. WHat did I find? Leagues of Genesis models, outnumbering Lexus 3 to 1. When I interviewed faculty and staff at these places of greater learning, their response was unanimous : they chose HMC for the ATPs.
  • Mikey 2019 Chevy Impala Premier FWD with 20 inch factory Bridgestones. I'm looking at replacing tires at the 65,000 KLM's (40,000 miles ) mark ....It doesn't thrill me .. I'm pricing Michelin Cross Climate 2 tires ouch !! ..Up here in Canuckastan ....Big $$$$$
Next