TTAC (Pre-) Announces World's Largest Automakers Of 2011
With only two more weeks to go in the calendar year, TTAC names GM the world’s largest automaker of 2011, followed by Volkswagen and Toyota.
Pummeled by a catastrophic tsunami in March, followed by a massive flood in Thailand, Toyota’s production and sales numbers will take a serious hit in the calendar year 2011. Global production of Toyota and Lexus vehicles is forecasted to be “at least 6.9 million units, as compared with 7.7 million units last calendar year,” Toyota spokesman Dion Corbett told TTAC. Global sales for the calendar year 2011 are forecasted to be “at least 7 million units, as compared with 7.7 million units last calendar year.” Corbett confirmed that this number is without Daihatsu and Hino. Projections for these units are not available. Based on October data, we add another 900,000 for Daihatsu and Hino, which should bring the Toyota total into the neighborhood of 7.8 million units.
Considering two natural disasters, the number could have been worse. Without the disasters, Toyota most likely would be in the #2 position. Production at Toyota had peaked in 2007 to 9.5 million, had dropped to 7.2 million in the carmageddon year of 2009, and had recovered in 2010 to 8.6 million.
We expect Volkswagen to come in at around 8.2 million units globally when the year 2011 ends. This is based on October group results and a strong showing of the Volkswagen brand in November.
For GM, we are a little in the dark. No newer data than those form the 3rd quarter are available. Based on this, we expect GM to report global production numbers well above 9 million when the year ends.
The final numbers are educated guesses. However the spaces between all three are comfortably wide to call the race decided.
Two events could upset this:
1.) Hyundai and Kia together climb above 7.8 million. We call this highly unlikely. By November, both reported combined sales of 5.6 million. However, this number excludes CKD exports.
2.) Nissan and Renault will report together. This would thoroughly confuse the podium. The chances of the Renault/Nissan Alliances reporting jointly to OICA currently are slim to none.
Looking forward to 2012, barring a major disaster in the U.S. or China, GM will most likely remain the world’s largest automaker. Unless it euthanizes Opel, it could even pierce the 10 million mark.
Volkswagen needs to keep up the momentum to defend the #2 position. Toyota will start the year with guns blazing and the lines rolling. Recently, Volkswagen had become a little cautious in its outlook for 2012.
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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I'm glad that Toyota is not going to be the largest automaker anymore. It takes the bullseye off their back and hopefully gives them some incentive to build more competitive vehicles again (it seems like they are heading in the right direction with intoduction of the FT-86 and new Lexus GS).
More controversial than Daihatsu is GM China (49% GM owned) and even more so Wuling (34% GM owned). Taking out those two drops GM approx 2.5 million for the year.