By on November 1, 2011

US Car sales are up a solid 10 percent in October, and Automotive News [sub] has the October Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) at 13.26 million. I need to hop on a plane to Tokyo, so I go with this number for the time being.  13.26 is pretty much the average of our analyst guesses. As for the Detroit 3, General Motors disappointed at 2 percent (and threw the analysts off), Ford and Chrysler came in as expected at 6 and 27 percent respectively. And how did our analysts fare?

The sharpest crystal ball was in the hands of Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds. She came closest to the Detroit 3, and pretty close to the SAAR. Our last month winner Road Lache of Deutsche Bank takes second, followed by Jesse Toprak of TrueCar. Peter Nesvold of Jefferies and Adam Jones of Morgan Stanley came closest  to the SAAR, but having supplied no Detroit 3 numbers, they were penalized. If you want to win in this game, you need to guess what Detroit does. Thems the rules.

Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 6.9% 8.0% 27.0% 13.4 1.06% 6.90% 7.96%
2 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 5.5% 4.1% 24.0% 13.0 1.96% 8.40% 10.36%
3 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 4.7% 7.4% 33.0% 13.4 1.06% 10.10% 11.16%
4 Brian Johnson (Barclays) 4.3% 8.8% 19.0% 13.3 0.30% 13.10% 13.40%
5 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 7.2% 7.5% 20.0% 13.2 0.45% 13.70% 14.15%
6 Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) 8.7% 6.5% 35.0% 13.2 0.45% 15.20% 15.65%
7 Seth Weber (RBC) 9.2% 8.6% 36.0% 13.4 1.06% 18.80% 19.86%
8 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 7.1% 1.8% NA 13.3 0.30% 109.30% 109.60%
9 Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA NA  NA 13.3 0.30% 300.00% 300.30%
10 Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan) NA NA  NA 13.2 0.45% 300.00% 300.45%
11 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)  NA NA  NA 13.4 1.06% 300.00% 301.06%
12 Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)  NA NA  NA 13.1 1.21% 300.00% 301.21%
13 Jeff Schuster (J.D. Power)  NA NA  NA 13.1 1.21% 300.00% 301.21%
14 George Magliano (IHS Automotive)  NA NA  NA 12.9 2.71% 300.00% 302.71%
Average 6.7% 6.6% 28.0% 13.2
Actual 2.0% 6.0% 27.0% 13.26

 

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2 Comments on “Grade The Analysts: Edmund’s Caldwell Beats Bankers, Truecar...”


  • avatar
    vbofw

    To be fair, Edmunds is armed with real time sales data from dealer sales. The bankers job is first to provide opinions on the automakers stocks for their customers. As a part of this, they make some educated assumptions on the SAAR. Guessing monthly sales is a part of that, but a secondary part of the job. I’m going to bet on the organization with insider info to be more accurate 10 times out of 10.

  • avatar
    tparkit

    Carmakers should enjoy the party while it lasts. The bar is about to run out of booze.

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/americans-incomes-have-dropped-67-percent-during-recovery_607640.html


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