By on November 1, 2011
Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR
George Magliano (IHS Automotive)  NA NA  NA 12.9
Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 5.5% 4.1% 24.0% 13.0
Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)  NA NA  NA 13.1
Jeff Schuster (J.D. Power)  NA NA  NA 13.1
Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 7.2% 7.5% 20.0% 13.2
Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan) NA NA  NA 13.2
Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) 8.7% 6.5% 35.0% 13.2
Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA NA  NA 13.3
Brian Johnson (Barclays) 4.3% 8.8% 19.0% 13.3
Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 7.1% 1.8% NA 13.3
Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)  NA NA  NA 13.4
Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 4.7% 7.4% 33.0% 13.4
Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 6.9% 8.0% 27.0% 13.4
Seth Weber (RBC) 9.2% 8.6% 36.0% 13.4
Average 6.7% 6.6% 28.0% 13.2

Today, October new car sales will be announced, and they are expected to be good. Analysts polled by Bloomberg show rare unity: They expect a Seasonally Adjusted Average Rate of sales (SAAR)  of 13.2 million on average, and the spread is only 500,000. Likewise, analysts agree that Ford and GM will each add around 6 percent in sales, whereas Chrysler will jump by around 28 percent.

We will do our usual Grade the Analysts competition later today, and looking at the predictions, the race will be very tight – except for those analysts that refuse to give a Detroit 3 prediction. They won’t stand a chance.

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2 Comments on “Analysts Agree: October Will Be Good – But How Good Are The Analysts?...”


  • avatar
    Brantta

    GM up 2% – retail up 3%
    Ford up 6% – retail NA
    Chrysler up 27% – retail up 40%

  • avatar
    mike978

    So Peter Nesvold (never heard of him) was correct on GM – everyone else 9who made a prediction) were on the high side.
    From Brantta’s data it looks like both GM and Chrysler cut their fleet sales relative to retail – that is a good sign.


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