In June, we made a projection of who will be where on the podium of the world’s largest automakers by the end of 2011. Now that half year results of most majors are in, we can have another look. Suddenly, the race gets tighter, and it could remain interesting till the end.
First, let’s see where we stand at halftime.
|H1 10||H1 11||Growth|
GM leads with 4.73 million units made in the first six months of 2011, followed by Volkswagen with 4.18 million and Toyota with 3.38 million.
Toyota has been hit badly by the effects of the March 11 tsunami and is down 22.5 percent. GM is up, by 8.9 percent. Most impressive is Volkswagen’s growth with 15.8 percent.
All data are global data which have been pulled from official financial and press releases of the respective companies. To comply with OICA, numbers are production numbers if available. Percentages have been calculated. If percentages do not agree with press releases, tough. We prefer to do our own math instead of cribbing numbers from a communiqué.
Now on to how the end result could look like. This is how we projected the numbers: For Volkswagen and GM, we raised the 2010 results as reported to OICA by the growth rate the carmaker registered in the first half of 2011. For Toyota, we took the official projection for the end of 2011. The 2010 OICA numbers were taken as the year-end number of 2010 instead of the numbers reported in the year end reports, because we want to replicate the OICA methodology as closely as possible.
And this is how this admittedly crude projector projects.
As you can see, the race now looks a little tighter than in June, when the contenders were more than a million apart. Why is that so? GM’s global growth has slackened. Volkswagen has kept its double-digit pace. Toyota has big plans for the second half of 2011.
Still, with GM a (projected) 730,000 in front of Volkswagen and Toyota a (projected) 460,000 behind VW, the race looks pretty much a done deal. But it’s far from decided. GM seems safe. But if VW doesn’t keep up its strong pace, and Toyota finishes a few more Prii prior to year’s end, Volkswagen will have to try again next year.