With full sales numbers reported for July, TTAC is proud to announce its first-ever auto analyst grades [analyst estimates via Bloomberg]. For now we’re simply grading SAAR projections, but we’ve included OEM projections where applicable, for your own comparison. For July, the top-rated analyst was Edmunds.com’s Jessica Caldwell, whose SAAR prediction was an uncanny .5% off the actual number. Congratulations to Jessica and the Edmunds team, as well as our other A-rated analysts, Rod Lache of Deutsche Bank and Peter Nesvold of Jefferies (who squeaked in with an A-). Hit the jump to see how we calculated our grades.
Here’s how the grading works: we calculate the percentage each analyst’s projection was off by and grade on the following scale:
<1% = A+
1%-2% = A
2%-3% = B
3%-4% = C
4%-5% = D
>5% = F
And at least for July, there’s evidence that our grade scale is a good one: the panel of analysts averaged a mid-to-high C, and there were only two Fs and one D. Be sure to check back next month, when we will again grade the panel of analysts in hopes of establishing a running track record.