Chart Of The Day: Why Have Road Fatalities Declined?

by Edward Niedermeyer

Updated: April 10th, 2023 Published: April 20th, 2011

The chart [above] shows the rate of fatalities per 100 million miles driven. We have assembled the data, going back almost 100 years. Look at the chart closely. Can you see a drop in fatalities that corresponds with when seatbelts were first introduced? Or when legislation mandating their use was passed? Or what about when air bags become prevalent? What about a jump in fatalities that ties to the current “epidemic” in texting while driving?

I can’t. The data does show that fatalities dropped markedly during the Great Depression and WW II. Aside from that, the rate has been declining steadily for years. Decades, even. This is good news, but makes it hard to credit seatbelts, technology or the other factors that reflexively are given credit. I am not suggesting that we should all stop wearing seatbelts. I am suggesting that when thinking about transportation safety, there is more going on than we typically consider.

#ChartOfTheDay #Safety

Edward Niedermeyer

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4 of 54 comments

MarcKyle64 on Apr 20, 2011

I see the increase from 1960 to 1966 as being symptomatic of the first Boomers turning 16 and getting their license and then thinning out the herd. I bet we see an upward trend for the next 20 years as the Boomers turn 65, keep driving, and start having those age related accidents. Stay away from those farmer's markets, everyone!

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Dan R on Apr 21, 2011

Perhaps it's due to stricter enforcement of traffic laws?

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Brandloyalty on Apr 21, 2011
The thing that chart doesn’t deal with is hours driven per million miles. It would seem to me its not a question of miles, but time on the road per death that is a better metric for determining the fatality level. It’s more a question of how much time there is for something to wrong rather than speed. Since the average speed traveled probably went up as cars got better, safer, and faster, and more people drove more as cars got better, you could easily lose the really interesting data by looking at the wrong way. But has the average driving speed gone up? Yes, some highway travel may be faster, but what about the coast-to-coast traffic congestion? Bumper to bumper, stop and go, hour after hour, day after day. Doesn't it seem worse than ever, every year?

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Dynamic88 on Apr 21, 2011

There is a spike starting at the bottom of the Great Depression - 1932. Since the data starts with 1921 I wonder how much the condition of roads has to do with fatality rates in the early 20s? At that tiime most roads were not paved. Condition of the roads probably dovetails with what's been said about the availability of EMS.

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