By on January 22, 2011

Even the most ardent EV proponents, like Nissan, think that by 2020, the market share of electric cars will be 10 percent.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has some better predictions, brought to us by Reve:

  • By 2030 the only cars sold in America will be electric cars.
  • By 2020, it will be dirt cheap to have long range vehicle lithium ion batteries packs.
  • By mid-century the vast majority of cars on the roads will be electric .

(Well duh, if only electric cars will be sold by 2030…)

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35 Comments on “Musk: By 2030, The Only Cars Sold In America Will Be Electric Cars...”


  • avatar
    imm

    Yeeeee, right, and all of them will be made by Tesla :)

  • avatar

    I don’t see this happening, but, I hope it could if we could find more ways to harness energy from the sun. If only there was a way to make ALL of the windows on buildings solar panels.

  • avatar
    Brian P

    I wouldn’t go so far as to say “all” vehicles on sale will be electric by 2030, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s a high percentage.

  • avatar
    Stingray

    Ummm, I’d bet on fuel cells instead of batteries.

    • 0 avatar
      Jellodyne

      Fuel cell or battery, you’re still talking about a car with an electric motor.
       
      It also wouldn’t surprise me if it were some form of super-capacitor or mechanical flywheel, or some combination of any of the the above.

  • avatar
    Amendment X

    This figure is entirely dependant on how extensively governments want to subsidize the purchase of electric cars. With heavy subsidization, we might hit full electric by then. But leaving it to the market (as what should be done – stop making the taxpayer foot the bill) would prolong it many more years.

  • avatar
    dzwax

    No, it’s entirely dependent on affordable Hydrogen.

  • avatar

    That’s a bold prediction Musk. You sound like a looney visionary, but you may have the last laugh on this one. In 10 years electric technology could be superior to gas, and then it’s all over for our precious dinosaur-burners. There will be a day when piston heads will just pull out our fire-spitting monsters from the garage for vintage race weekends. I guess I could handle that…

  • avatar
    Robert Schwartz

    Unicorn farts. You guys are forgetting unicorn farts.

  • avatar

    the Air car is already a reality.

  • avatar
    aspade

    Garbage.  The oil powered car has a future as long as there is a significant supply of economically recoverable oil.  Even the most pessimistic projections don’t suggest that will run out in my lifetime.
     
     

  • avatar
    blowfish

    by then u think the govt will do away with the hefty revenue derived from the gas tax?
     

  • avatar

    This is spin on Musk’s part. He’s not an objective source. It ***could*** happen, but I’d say the likelihood is pretty low. I’d be much more interested in opinions from, say, the clean vehicles people at the Union of Concerned Scientists or the Natural Resources Defense Council.

  • avatar
    joe_thousandaire

    The only way that could happen is if it was government mandated, which would require a huge majority for left-wing progressives, or more likely a bloody coup perpetrated by the EPA. I’m sure Mr. Musk would lend his full support to either one.

  • avatar
    Uncle Mellow

    Real ‘Back To The Future’ headline , this. At the beginning of the 20th Century many of the cars were EVs.

  • avatar
    findude

    This is possible if somewhere in a basement a mad scientist is just about finished developing the Sharpstone.

  • avatar
    axual

    Musk is only concerned with new vehicles I suspect.  I wonder how many people will want to buy a used electric.

  • avatar
    ixim

    Utterly self-serving. Of course, he could be right, but a more realistic scenario would be a continued mix of ICE and electric vehicles; just more of the latter than we see today. No s**t, Grandma.

  • avatar
    SV

    By 2030 I’d bet large sums that virtually all new cars will be at least hybrids of some kind, but an all-EV market in just 20 years strikes me as unlikely.

  • avatar

    The lighter an electric car, the better its range.
    I have invented a way to make cars lighter and safer at the same time.
    http://www.safersmallcars.com

  • avatar
    Mike Kelley

    With government picking winners and losers, what could possibly go wrong?  http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-0123-advantage-capital–20110123,0,2276547,full.story

  • avatar
    Moparman426W

    Just think, back in the 50’s everyone thought that we would all be flying around in cars like the jetsons by now. It’s possible that gas burning engines will keep getting better on fuel to the point that electric cars won’t be necessary as transportation for the masses.
    Sound crazy? Perhaps, but just think, we now have V8 powered vehicles that can get better fuel mileage than some 4 cylinders got back in the 70’s. Back in those days if you told someone that you thought the day would come when an 8 cylinder high performance car would get fuel mileage in the mid-high 20’s they would have thought you were nuts.

  • avatar
    ihatetrees

    I wouldn’t bet against the ICE – batteries are not improving fast enough.
    Now there may be a computer controlled electric motor on each wheel. But the ICE will generate power.

  • avatar
    DavidB

    It all depends on the price of oil and how much governments are able or willing to subsidize electrics.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simmons–Tierney_bet

  • avatar
    HoldenSSVSE

    Lithium battery packs simply shifts our oil dependency to lithium and rare earth metal dependency on foreign governments, who just like oil producers, don’t exactly have our vital best interests as a top priority.
     
    The more I look at electric cars (and I’m a fan of the idea) the more I think that T. Boone Pickens is right, and CNG seems like the better short term option until fuel cell technology can be brought down to a reasonable cost level and infrastructure can be deployed.

    • 0 avatar
      John Horner

      Amen HoldenSSVSE.

    • 0 avatar
      Stingray

      And no one burned you for suggesting CNG?. My respect to you sir. I agree with the CNG, but have got burned too many times in this site by doing that, that I don’t bother to suggest it anymore. Not that I have abandoned the idea.

    • 0 avatar
      nikita

      CNG has close to the same range problems as battery electric. We are now on our third CNG car in the family. You still cant drive from LA to LV because of lack of infrastructure. Gas-To-Liquids refineries are what are needed to make practical use of our methane resources for transportation fuel. Diesel from GTL is a direct replacement with no changes to distribution infrastructure or tax collections.

  • avatar
    TrailerTrash

    Has ANY future prediction EVER come true?
    Other than there will be wars, or similar stupid no brainers, what has actually come through?
    Hello…remember 1984?

    Would you trust this idiot with your future?
    Not me, anymore than I can sing Lennon’s Give Peace A Chance without stopping halfway through it and saying…Wait,  What?

    I wish he would tell us exactly where the electricity will come from.
    This summer my electric bill in MO was over $576.00 for one month.

  • avatar
    AJ

    Good, more gas for my Jeep. :)

  • avatar

    Titan II?

  • avatar
    mwilbert

    First, it is really safe to make predictions about 2030, because no one will remember what you said.
    No prediction about cars that far ahead is reliable, as that is a long enough time for what happens to be significantly affected by technology developed between now and then, and I doubt EVERY car sold in the US will be electric, but I would bet most of them will be unless there is a breakthrough in creating liquid fuels from things other than petroleum, because if there isn’t, those fuels are going to be pretty expensive, and batteries will almost certainly be a lot cheaper and higher performance than they are now.

    • 0 avatar
      PeregrineFalcon

      “First, it is really safe to make predictions about 2030, because no one will remember what you said.”

      I was going to say that it was stupid to make predictions that soon into the future. In twenty years, odds are this guy will still be alive, and thanks to the Internet recording everything ever posted onto it, ever, we’ll be able to drag this gem up and club him over the head with it.

      If you’re going to make stupid predictions, go far enough into the future that you won’t be around to get mocked about it.

      Good prediction: “Humanity will colonize another planet by 2150.”
      Bad prediction: “The world will end on December 21, 2012.”

      Yes, I am looking forward to mocking people on the 22nd. That, and buying a metric ton of really, really cheap camping and outdoor gear.


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