Happy Days Are Here Again? Analyst Sees 15 - 16 Million Cars This Year

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

James W. Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, sees U.S. auto sales bouncing “back to normal” by year’s end. “Normal” being “a rate of 15 million to 16 million vehicles.” Bloomberg painted a nice Chart of the Day, which seems to support that gutsy theory.

Paulsen and Bloomberg charted the recoveries after the 1981-1982 and 1990- 1991 recessions, and overlaid them with the current sales rebound. If that rebound behaves like the previous rebounds, the chart says anywhere between 14 and 15 million by year’s end, but let’s not quibble.

Paulsen and Bloomberg are pretty much alone with that forecast. Despite a good December, J.D. Power kept its 2011 forecast at 12.8 million units. Edmunds reports a “somber atmosphere” from the Detroit Auto Show, and “is forecasting 12.9 million for 2011.”

But then, Paulsen isn’t in the car business, he is flogging stocks. Especially car stocks that “may again have a good year”, Paulsen writes. Let’s hope so.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Daga Daga on Jan 08, 2011

    Can you list his stock recommendations so that I can do the reverse? I thought analysts were trying to get it right, not be "controversial" Wasn't the 81 recovery after a double dip from inflation? That's not like today Wasn't the 91 recovery coinciding with the start of ABS driven loan issuance? That's not like today either. If it tracks the 1932 recovery it will be 21MM!!! Oh, wait. Different conditions then too. Jeez, maybe each one is different.

  • Bufguy Bufguy on Jan 09, 2011
    The “Great Depression” was much shorter and milder in Europe than the US. Great Britain did the opposite of FDR and they turned around in a matter of years. FDR greatly expanded government, taxes and regulation and that kept the US economy mired. See Depression of 1920: http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/the-depression-youve-never-heard-of-1920-1921/ http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=9880 You're drinking the Rebublican Kool-aid thornmark....quoting the right wing spin machine..the Cato Institute. A major cause of the great depression was people buying on margin...overextending themseves...sound familiar? Hoover's solutions weren't working. FDR was making a major dent in unemployment and growth when in 1936, bowing to Republican pressure the gov't actually cut way back because of concern with the deficit...this created a double dip recession within the depression. Yes WWII did pull us out by conscripting millions and creating a huge wartime economy. I wouldn't put much credence in the Cato Institute...Read History
  • Analoggrotto TTAC is full of drug addicts with short memories. Just beside this article is another very beautiful article about how the EV9 was internationally voted by a renowned board of automotive experts who are no doubt highly educated, wealthy and affluent; the best vehicle in entire world. That's planet earth for you numbskulls. Let me repeat: the best vehicle in the world is the Kia EV9. Voted, and sealed, and if you try to deny it Fanny Willis is ready to prosecute you; but she will send her boyfriend instead because she is busy.
  • MaintenanceCosts Our Bolt is not going away for a while but if I had to predict today what would replace it, I'd predict an EX30. It checks every box for my wife.
  • Ajla Both Biden and Trump are on record caring ~0% what the WTO says and the US government isn't bound by WTO rulings.
  • Honda1 The FJB Inflation Reduction Act will end up causing more inflation down the road, fact! Go ahead and flame me libbies, get back to me in a few years!
  • Cprescott Fisker is another brand that Heir Yutz has killed.
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