Happy Days Are Here Again? Analyst Sees 15 - 16 Million Cars This Year
James W. Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, sees U.S. auto sales bouncing “back to normal” by year’s end. “Normal” being “a rate of 15 million to 16 million vehicles.” Bloomberg painted a nice Chart of the Day, which seems to support that gutsy theory.
Paulsen and Bloomberg charted the recoveries after the 1981-1982 and 1990- 1991 recessions, and overlaid them with the current sales rebound. If that rebound behaves like the previous rebounds, the chart says anywhere between 14 and 15 million by year’s end, but let’s not quibble.
Paulsen and Bloomberg are pretty much alone with that forecast. Despite a good December, J.D. Power kept its 2011 forecast at 12.8 million units. Edmunds reports a “somber atmosphere” from the Detroit Auto Show, and “is forecasting 12.9 million for 2011.”
But then, Paulsen isn’t in the car business, he is flogging stocks. Especially car stocks that “may again have a good year”, Paulsen writes. Let’s hope so.
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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Can you list his stock recommendations so that I can do the reverse? I thought analysts were trying to get it right, not be "controversial" Wasn't the 81 recovery after a double dip from inflation? That's not like today Wasn't the 91 recovery coinciding with the start of ABS driven loan issuance? That's not like today either. If it tracks the 1932 recovery it will be 21MM!!! Oh, wait. Different conditions then too. Jeez, maybe each one is different.