Analysts Agree On Strong January

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

When January sales numbers will be announced tomorrow, just about everybody should have reason to celebrate. Analysts from J.D. Power to TrueCar, along with industry watchers of major banks and brokerage houses, expect a strong January. They predict the highest seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, since the shortlived cash for clunkers episode in August 2009.

The results of a poll by Bloomberg go like this:

AnalystInstitutionGMFordChryslerSAAR Brian JohnsonBarclays Capital10.0%18.0%26.0%12.4Jesse ToprakTrueCar.com9.1%16.0%28.0%12.7Joseph BarkerIHS AutomotiveNANANA12.4Jeff SchusterJ.D. PowerNANANA12.2C. J. CerasoCredit Suisse10.0%24.0%29.0%12.6Rod LacheDeutsche Bank7.6%15.0%26.0%12.3Average:9.2%18.0%27.0%12.4

Analysts have glad tidings even for Toyota (not in the table.) The consensus is a 16 percent gain for the automaker from Aichi. Usually quite bullish Brian Johnson sees a 2.8 percent decline for Toyota.

Tomorrow afternoon, we will know more. Watch TTAC for continuously updated sales numbers, as they come in from the manufacturers.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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 4 comments
  • Dwford Dwford on Jan 31, 2011

    Did everyone forget it snowed almost every day in the Northeast in January?

    • Cdnsfan27 Cdnsfan27 on Jan 31, 2011

      +1...people who got stuck for 10 hours on the beltway were not out shopping for cars...one of the many reasons we moved to Tampa:)

  • Jjster6 Jjster6 on Jan 31, 2011

    Four wheel drive truck sales should be up.

  • Zackman Zackman on Jan 31, 2011

    I drove new cars home in the snow and slop more than once and I didn't like having all thesalt and junk on our new ride at the get-go. I don't want to do it again, but you can't always buy on schedule when it's warm. I too, am very interested in January car sales. I know I didn't get anywhere near a car showroom for several months now, and don't plan to, except for the upcoming auto show, anytime soon.

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