Europe In October 2010: Hangover

by Bertel Schmitt

Published: November 16th, 2010

New car registrations in the 27 countries of the EU crashed by 16.6 percent to 1,027,036 units in October. That according to the latest statistics of the European manufacturer organization ACEA. The year looks a bit better: In the first 10 months, demand for new cars has decreased by 5.5 percent, totaling 11,279,542 new vehicles registered.

Europe is in the throes of a big cash for clunker induced hangover. It will take a lot of Aspirin, and into 2011 to get over it. Even compared with October 2008, the market in the EU27 is down 9.4 percent. Compared with the first ten months of 2008, sales are down 12 percent.

Any way you look at it: It’s down.

Double digit contractions are being reported from all major markets in Europe, ranging from -18.5 percent in France, to -20.0 percent in Germany, -22.2 percent in the UK, -28.8 percent in Italy and -37.6 percent in Spain.

Two markets registered triple digit gains: Ireland’s new car sales rose 114.6 percent (from 1,530 last year to 3,284 this time around.) Estonia’s car market exploded by 121.2 percent. They sold 993 cars this October, compared to 449 in October last year.

If you look at the data ( here in PDF and here as Excel,) you will see the markets that didn’t receive steroid injections last year slowly recover. You also see the drug recipients exhibiting serious withdrawal symptoms.

On the manufacturer front, not much to report. VW remains the emperor of Europe with a more or less unchanged market share of 21.3 percent for the year. Next is PSA, up half a percent to 13.5 percent. Renault keeps gaining market share, up to 10.3 from 9.1 in the first ten months. GM is holding its own (8.6 percent compared to 9.1, but Saab is gone). Fiat loses a good percent of share to 7.8. And so on. The field hasn’t changed dramatically. If you look at all the Octobers for the last years, matters appear less dramatic than they may sound.

What has changed is not on the list: The makers with heavy exports to China, notably the Germans, are doing much better than the numbers make you believe.

#BertelSchmitt #Europe #NewVehicleSales #October2010 #Sales

Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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Lorenzo The unspoken killer is that batteries can't be repaired after a fender-bender and the cars are totaled by insurance companies. Very quickly, insurance premiums will be bigger than the the monthly payment, killing all sales. People will be snapping up all the clunkers Tim Healey can find.
Lorenzo Massachusetts - with the start/finish line at the tip of Cape Cod.
RHD Welcome to TTAH/K, also known as TTAUC (The truth about used cars). There is a hell of a lot of interesting auto news that does not make it to this website.
Jkross22 EV makers are hosed. How much bigger is the EV market right now than it already is? Tesla is holding all the cards... existing customer base, no dealers to contend with, largest EV fleet and the only one with a reliable (although more crowded) charging network when you're on the road. They're also the most agile with pricing. I have no idea what BMW, Audi, H/K and Merc are thinking and their sales reflect that. Tesla isn't for me, but I see the appeal. They are the EV for people who really just want a Tesla, which is most EV customers. Rivian and Polestar and Lucid are all in trouble. They'll likely have to be acquired to survive. They probably know it too.
Lorenzo The Renaissance Center was spearheaded by Henry Ford II to revitalize the Detroit waterfront. The round towers were a huge mistake, with inefficient floorplans. The space is largely unusable, and rental agents were having trouble renting it out.GM didn't know that, or do research, when they bought it. They just wanted to steal thunder from Ford by making it their new headquarters. Since they now own it, GM will need to tear down the "silver silos" as un-rentable, and take a financial bath.Somewhere, the ghost of Alfred P. Sloan is weeping.