Chinese Numerology, FAW Edition

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

China’s FAW, despite its name (First Automobile Works) only second largest manufacturer in China, joint venture partner of Volkswagen and Toyota, and owner of a large array of brands, including the Hongqi, has filed its contribution to the 12th Five-Year Plan (pretty much the only holdover from the olden days) with China’s State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC). The numbers, brought to us by CapitalVue, are both audacious and timorous.

In the audacious dept., FAW singlehandedly wants to achieve a sales volume of five million vehicles by 2015. Not a small feat. It’s about half of what all of the U.S.A. bought in 2009. But with a Chinese car market that goes nowhere but up, this target should be achievable.

They also plan to have a market share of 20 percent. Let’s book that in the audacious dept also. With around 100 automakers in China (nobody is quite sure), achieving a 20 percent share comes close to total market domination. 20 percent … wait a minute!

According to my Made in China calculator, 5 million cars at a 20 percent share comes to a total market size of 25m cars. And with that, we are entering the timorous world. China wants to sell between 16 and 17m cars this year. 25m by 2015 would come out to a growth rate of less than 10 percent per year.

That’s all you dare to put in the 5 year plan, FAW? Come on. No guts, no glory, or Chinese words to that effect. Let’s hope there was something lost in translation.

(Speaking of China: I found myself alone at the office this morning, as all of China has taken off to celebrate the Moon (a.k.a. Lantern or Mooncake) Festival. It will last through the rest of the week. Those who wish less news from China will get their wish fulfilled! There should be pretty much nothing from China while the country is partying.)

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Rod Panhard Rod Panhard on Sep 22, 2010

    Hey Bertiil, howzabout providing us a translation of some of these car names? I'm going to guess that "Hongqi" is a car for white guys from the suburbs. But a Dongfeng?

    • See 1 previous
    • Wallstreet Wallstreet on Sep 23, 2010

      Hongqi means red flag. Dongfeng means east wind. p/s My bad, I didn't see "Blowfish" has already done the translation part.

  • Blowfish Blowfish on Sep 22, 2010

    “Hongqi” is a car for white guys from the suburbs. It meant Red Flag, in the old days our beloved Chairman or Fuhrer bestowed his Army as Number " 8 " , 8 th Army, Uncle Eigth etc. They use Red flag, I guess the Red Flag was something to commorate those glory days. For a while during the 60s Red Army and also the Junior Red Guards was not some thing anybody wanted to talk about. SImply Auschwiz came to your local village. More than coming to your local theatre. Circa that time my fnd ate tree roots for Lunch, supper or the SPAM's worse equivalent of staples. Middle Kingdom for some reason had a few very bad years for crops, or took up Lysenko's growing/farming method Dongfeng= Eastern Wind I gues it symbolise of new growth, hope. A fnd told me the Red Flag Limousine sedans were totally custom made, should u banged up a fender, dont bother to swap a fender from another car, as Meister Liu did bespoked his fender for your car a little bit different from another production run, so u need to straighten out your old one. I suppose the newer ones would have more consistency. Many yrs a go a few of the Red Flags were being sold off by the central govt, as newer ones would replace them.

    • PeriSoft PeriSoft on Sep 23, 2010

      Of course, when I think 'red flag', I think, 'race stopped due to hazardous conditions'...

  • Jpolicke In a communist dictatorship, there isn't much export activity that the government isn't aware of. That being the case, if the PRC wanted to, they could cut the flow of fentanyl down to a trickle. Since that isn't happening, I therefore assume Xi Jinping doesn't want it cut. China needs to feel the consequences for knowingly poisoning other countries' citizens.
  • El scotto Oh, ye nattering nabobs of negativism! Think of countries like restaurants. Our neighbors to the north and south are almost as good and the service is fantastic. They're awfully close to being as good as the US. Oh the Europeans are interesting and quaint but you really only go there a few times a year. Gents, the US is simply the hottest restaurant in town. Have to stand in line to get in? Of course. Can you hand out bribes to get in quicker? Of course. Suppliers and employees? Only the best on a constant basis.Did I mention there is a dress code? We strictly enforce it. Don't like it? Suck it.
  • 1995 SC At least you can still get one. There isn't much for Ford folks to be happy about nowadays, but the existence of the Mustang and the fact that the lessons from back in the 90s when Ford tried to kill it and replace it with the then flavor of the day seem to have been learned (the only lessons they seem to remember) are a win not only for Ford folks but for car people in general. One day my Super Coupe will pop its headgaskets (I know it will...I read it on the Internet). I hope I will still be physically up to dropping the supercharged Terminator Cobra motor into it. in all seriousness, The Mustang is a.win for car guys.
  • Lorenzo Heh. The major powers, military or economic, set up these regulators for the smaller countries - the big guys do what they want, and always have. Are the Chinese that unaware?
  • Lorenzo The original 4-Runner, by its very name, promised something different in the future. What happened?
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