China’s FAW, despite its name (First Automobile Works) only second largest manufacturer in China, joint venture partner of Volkswagen and Toyota, and owner of a large array of brands, including the Hongqi, has filed its contribution to the 12th Five-Year Plan (pretty much the only holdover from the olden days) with China’s State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC). The numbers, brought to us by CapitalVue, are both audacious and timorous.
In the audacious dept., FAW singlehandedly wants to achieve a sales volume of five million vehicles by 2015. Not a small feat. It’s about half of what all of the U.S.A. bought in 2009. But with a Chinese car market that goes nowhere but up, this target should be achievable.
They also plan to have a market share of 20 percent. Let’s book that in the audacious dept also. With around 100 automakers in China (nobody is quite sure), achieving a 20 percent share comes close to total market domination. 20 percent … wait a minute!
According to my Made in China calculator, 5 million cars at a 20 percent share comes to a total market size of 25m cars. And with that, we are entering the timorous world. China wants to sell between 16 and 17m cars this year. 25m by 2015 would come out to a growth rate of less than 10 percent per year.
That’s all you dare to put in the 5 year plan, FAW? Come on. No guts, no glory, or Chinese words to that effect. Let’s hope there was something lost in translation.
(Speaking of China: I found myself alone at the office this morning, as all of China has taken off to celebrate the Moon (a.k.a. Lantern or Mooncake) Festival. It will last through the rest of the week. Those who wish less news from China will get their wish fulfilled! There should be pretty much nothing from China while the country is partying.)