Whenever yours truly sings the long-term praise of the booming Chinese auto market, it elicits loud protests: “Can’t be! Bubble market! The environment! (Our gasoline.)”
The people who make and sell cars for a living have a different opinion. The AlixPartners consultancy asked 50 senior executives from both foreign and domestic players in China’s automobile industry how much they think the Chinese car market will grow between now and 2015. Guess what their answer is?
The 50 executives expect “steady growth of the Chinese auto market in the future, with a projected average sales growth of 20 percent per annum between now and 2015”, said John Hoffecker, managing director of AlixPartners.
20 percent ain’t much? Don’t forget the magic of compound interest.
If the 50 guys are right on, it will be 16m cars this year, 24m cars in 2012, 41m cars in 2015.
Can’t be! Communist propaganda! Lies! Bubble market! The environment! Our gasoline! Let them ride bicycles!