As time goes on, Opel’s chances to be rescued by an outside investor are dwindling. A member of the German government’s Opel Task Force told Reuters on Thursday that negotiations between GM and the two competing bidders (RHJ and Magna) for Opel could drag on longer than expected. The way it looks, the deal may never close—because GM doesn’t want to. There could be another rich sugar daddy: It’s you.
As far as Magna v.v. RHJ goes, “the process is just not far enough along from today’s point of view,” said Thomas Schaefer. In his day job, he is state secretary in the finance ministry of Hesse. On the Opel Task Force, he represents the interests of his state and three others that are home to Opel manufacturing plants.
Schaefer doesn’t understand what’s keeping GM from signing: “I believe there are only a limited number of issues still open. If one were to sit down and concentrate on working them out, a solution could be found in 24 hours,” Schaefer said.
GM doesn’t seem to look for solutions. They want to drag it out as long as possible. In the GM blog, Smith writes “We still believe this can be closed by the end of September.”
Dear John: You are delusional. The German national elections are on September 28. After that date, you won’t get a cent out of Berlin. Already, there is very little political leverage in Opel. German opinion has turned anti-bailout. Even the Social Democrats and their union buddies are amazingly subdued on the issue. Actually, the union buddies are distancing themselves from the Social Democrats: For the first time, the German metalworkers union will abstain from endorsing a party or candidate.
Dear John: Or maybe, you are not delusional after all. Maybe you never wanted to sell Opel. Maybe you wanted to buy time and collect the German €1.5b bridge loan. The Sueddeutsche Zeitung comes to the same conclusion voiced by TTAC a day earlier: “Quite possibly, GM doesn’t want to sell Opel. Hardliners at GM don’t want to set Opel free and want to keep them at all costs.” In a separate article, the Sueddeutsche writes that there is a scenario in which GM buys back Opel from the German trustees, using American taxpayer’s money. The Sueddeutsche picked up Vietnamesque rumors of “hawks” and “doves” at Government Motors. The hawks want to keep Opel. The doves want to sell Opel to an investor.
Dear John: In your blog, you deny that option, so vehemently that the grammar turns into collateral damage: “GM has not and will not approach the U.S. Treasury for funding to restructure Opel.” You also claim “GM does not seek to reacquire majority control of Opel, from any investor candidate.”
If that is true—honestly, we don’t think it is, unless these sentences are very carefully parsed—what’s keeping you from closing the deal in the 24 hours Herr Schaefer thinks it will take?
Here is the hawkish sentence parsing scenario: Your overlords in D.C. told you not to sell. You didn’t approach the Treasury for funding, Treasury approached you. They give you the money it takes to pay back Berlin’s bridge loan. Opel goes back to GM. That way, majority control doesn’t need to be reacquired from any investor candidate. Sound about right?