By The Numbers: Hope Springs Eternal; April Sales Prove Elusive

This month, a new approach. I’ve picked examples from the Big 2.5 and Toyota in four categories: passenger car, full-sized pickup truck, truck-based SUV and small SUV/CUV. I've also chosen one brand-new model from each of the 2.5. If this approach finds favor, we’ll follow these 19 vehicles through the calendar year, comparing their U.S. sales each month with sales from 2005 and 2006. I've also shown major rebates ($5K and over) and the "employee pricing" incentives from 2005. Once we’ve looked at how well these key vehicles are selling, we’ll look at overall sales to see how the individual models’ sales track with the overall sales trends from their makers. Capisco? Here we go!

[Note: Clicking on the links below will bring up a graph showing sales for that vehicle for the past two years and 2007 YTD. Use your browser's "back" button to return to the article. The graphs show sales for each month. Green links with double underlines are not linked to the graphs.]

Here are the charts for last year's best selling passenger cars from their respective manufacturers: Impala (GM), Fusion (Ford), Chrysler 300 (Chrysler Group) and last but not least by a long run, Camry (Toyota Motor Sales USA).

Passenger cars overall didn’t fare very well in April. The Fusion showed growth, but at a distinctly slower pace than it enjoyed during the first quarter of the year. The Impala, 300 and Camry– all of which had been showing sales increases for the first three months of the year– took a dive. Camry was the most surprising; April sales dipped below those of the previous two years.

Pickup Trucks

The choices here are pretty straightforward: Ford F-Series , Dodge Ram , and Toyota Tundra. GM offers its full size truck under both the Chevrolet and GMC brand names. I'm tracking the Silverado , as it’s the better-selling of the two GMT900-based pickups.

So far this year, the Ram is currently following the same sales trend (and almost same numbers) as last year. It's an interesting development for a design that’s the oldest in its class.

Ford's F-Series is also showing the same sales trend as in previous years– but at an alarmingly lower level.

The Silverado bears watching. For the second consecutive month, sales were below previous years. This despite the fact that it’s a new design; sales should be trending higher. Chevy just announced new incentives to see if they can pull sales up. If not, failure to elevate could portend some scary problems for GM.

Truck-Based SUVs

These are the traditional SUVs we all know and… uh… know them. They’re represented here by the Tahoe , Explorer , Durango and 4Runner.

The new[ish] Chevrolet Tahoe is the only SUV showing an overall sales increase over last year. However, its sales are still well below ‘06, and there was a major sales drop from March to April this year. Since the Tahoe tends to show the same drop over the last three years, there may not be a cause for alarm– except in light of the overall numbers.

This year's sales-to-date for the Ford Explorer, Dodge Durango and Toyota 4Runner are all below those for the previous years. With gas prices climbing, logic suggests sales have not yet hit rock bottom.

Small SUV/CUV's

In 2005, these models were all considered SUVs. Two years later, they’re CUVs (Crossover Utility Vehicles). Go figure. The models shown here– Equinox , Escape , Pacifica , and RAV-4 — were each manufacturer's 2006 top selling whatever-they-call-them-this-week.

All but the Pacifica show a drop from March to April. Although sales of the newly-designed Toyota RAV-4 took a sharp fall in April, they're still above the previous years’ totals.

Ford has just introduced the refreshed 2008 Escape, so sales there may grow a bit over the next few months.

Chevy's Equinox stumbles and tumbles with practically no updates since it was introduced. With newer competition from Ford and Toyota, its sales will probably continue to decline.

New Models

You never know how the market will react to a newly-introduced vehicle. Each manufacturer is trying a new model that’s somewhat of a departure from their usual offerings.

GM now offers the Lambda-platform CUVs, represented here by the GMC Acadia. These CUVs are shouldering a lot of responsibility. They must replace GM's TWAT award winning minivans, take up the slack for some of the Trailblazer-based SUVs, and provide an alternative to The General's slow-selling large SUVs.

Ford introduced the Edge amid a lot of fanfare, touting it as Ford’s [latest] “make or break” vehicle. Chrysler is also taking a chance with the Jeep Compass — the first Jeep product in a long time that isn’t “Trail Rated." We’ll keep an eye on them to see how well the market accepts each.

Total Sales

All four automakers lost sales last month. Only Chrysler ended this April in better shape than last year; GM , Ford, and Toyota all ended the month lower than a year ago. It’s a bit early to tell if April's downturn represents a broader pattern, but we’ll keep tracking it and let you know what we find.